Friday, October 25, 2013

Soros Joins 'Ready For Hillary' Team - For What It's Worth

by JASmius

And that ain't much:

Liberal billionaire investor George Soros kicked in $25,000 to Ready for Hillary, the super PAC organizing support for a possible 2016 presidential run by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Politico reported Thursday.

Soros will be co-chair of the group's national finance council, Soros' political director Michael Vachon said in an emailed statement.

"George Soros is delighted to join more than 1 million Americans in supporting Ready for Hillary," Vachon said. "His support for Ready for Hillary is an extension of his long-held belief in the power of grass-roots organizing."

Talking Points Memo reported the finance group is working to persuade the former first lady to run for president.

Lotsa luck with that, Georgie.  Because there are several reasons why Hillary Clinton will never, EVER get back to the Oval Office as its official occupant.

First and foremost is that I firmly believe that Barack Obama will contrive some sort of crisis to affect a coup de tat and suspend the Constitution, more specifically both Article II Section 1 and the 22nd Amendment, and without explicitly saying so, declare himself president-for-life.  His existing baseline of serial violations of the Constitution creates ample precedent for such a thing, and there's no restraining factor I can think of that would dissuade him from it, given his un-American upbringing, stupendous narcissism, and delusions of godhood.  And thus, there won't be a 2016 election.

But if there is, Hillary still has no shot at it.  Two overriding factors rule it out.

1) She's in the wrong party.  Which is to say, if Hillary is counting on the Clinton "brand" - itself staler than Lindsey Lohan's virtue - to pave the way for the coronation that got so rudely interrupted five years ago, the Democrat Party does not and has never gone in for that sort of dynasticism.  Even the Kennedy clan only managed to elevate one of its number to the presidency (Sirhan Sirhan's bullets kept us from finding out for certain in Bobby Kennedy's case, but Teddy couldn't even unseat a crumbling Jimmy Carter).  It doesn't matter how much she thinks it's her "turn," that just isn't how the Donk nominating culture works.  As she should know, as that was precisely the mindset that sent her husband to the White House in the first place.

The Democrats are all about the "white knight," the young, dynamic, charismatic demagogue, promising "a better way," a "new era," "hope and change," and....well, you get the idea.  And, of course, every single time it's just crass propaganda manipulation, as after the "white knight" sweeps to power with coattails longer than Princess Di's bridal train, they inevitably start "adjusting" all those grandiose promises into sneering double-crosses, and what emerges is the same old leftism that doesn't work, divides and impoverishes the country, and....well, you get the idea.

In the modern era it recurs on a sixteen-year cycle: JFK in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Bill Clinton in 1992, and Barack Obama in 2008.  Which would mean Julian Castro, probably, will come slouching towards the ballot box to be born in 2024, if only for his surname alone.  It's awfully difficult to see where a "first woman president" who's highly bereft of youth, dynamism, or charisma would fit into that template.

I suppose that wouldn't preclude Mrs. Clinton getting nominated in 2016 - witness John Kerry in '04 - but given that she'd be dragging around more baggage than Gladys Thornapple on Clearance Day, it certainly would preclude her from getting elected.

2) Rauch's Rule, or "The Law of 14":

As every grocer knows, many products have sell-by dates. Bread lasts a day or two, milk maybe a week. Well, presidential aspirants have a sell-by date, too. They last 14 years.

Herewith, Rauch's Rule. Actually, it was pointed out to me by a young political genius named -- but I can't tell you his name, because he works in a government job and asked me to keep his name out of my article. Sadly, I must myself take credit for the Law of 14:

With only one exception since the presidency of Theodore Roosevelt, no one has been elected president who took more than 14 years to climb from his first major elective office to election as either president or vice president.

George W. Bush took six years. Bill Clinton, 14. George H.W. Bush, 14 (to the vice presidency). Ronald Reagan, 14. Jimmy Carter, six. Richard Nixon, six (to vice president). John Kennedy, 14. Dwight Eisenhower, zero. Harry Truman, 10 (to vice president). Franklin Roosevelt, four. Herbert Hoover, zero. Calvin Coolidge, four. Warren Harding, six. Woodrow Wilson, two. William Howard Taft, zero. Theodore Roosevelt, two (to vice president). The one exception: Lyndon Johnson's 23 years from his first House victory to the vice presidency.

Wait a minute: zero? Right. The rule is a maximum, not a minimum. Generals and other famous personages can go straight to the top. But if a politician first runs for some other major office, the 14-year clock starts ticking.

"Major office" means governorship, Congress, or the mayoralty of a big city: elective posts that, unlike offices such as lieutenant governor or state attorney general, can position their holder as national contender. Bill Clinton became Arkansas attorney general in 1976, but his clock began ticking when he won the governorship two years later. Had he not won the presidency in 1992, his national career would have been over.

Updating that baseline, Barack Obama took four years (and won), John McCain took twenty-six years (and lost), and Mitt Romney took ten years (and, allegedly, lost).  As Rauch himself concedes, it's not an airtight axiom, but its a strong rule of thumb.

When applied to Hillary Clinton, we find that her "Rauch window" closes two years before she could run again in 2016, measuring from when she was elected to the Senate in 2000.  I've always measured from when she first became "co-president" in 1992, which is why I always thought she should have challenged Dubya in 2004 if she was going to run at all.  Waiting until 2008 closed that window, and we saw how that turned out.  By that yardstick she'd be at twenty-four years, so by whatever measure, she'd got hair growing out of her in very embarrassing locations.

There is one more very powerful reason why Hillary Clinton will never be president and most likely not even the nominee of O's party:





Do even the Dems want to slog through two years of that just to sate this old hag's sense of aggrieved entitlement?  I seriously doubt it.

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