Sunday, January 15, 2017

The Future, Truthfully

By Douglas V. Gibbs

Let's jump into the time traveling Delorean and leap into the future. . .  

I received an email talking about the future, and what we should expect.  Here it is, with my additions in bold. . . (note that in some cases I am just having a little fun. . . some are quite serious  -  see if you can tell the difference).

The Future?

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. All medical X-rays used Kodak film. Camera's, both commercial and industrial, security camera's- imaging of all sorts. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people won't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.  Government will use the revolution for their own revolution, to control through a new technocracy.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world; 10 years earlier than expected.  While I am not expecting a "Terminator" scenario where artificial intelligence becomes self-aware and kills off much of humanity, collectivists will definitely try to use it to enact control over the citizenry. . . in the name of the common good, of course.

In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEST EXTINCTION OF THEM ALL.  Jobs will become home jobs.  There will be no need, in most instances, to go to a workplace.  The rise in technology will also displace many Americans, increasing the number of people reliant upon government benefits.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.  As we saw in the film "Minority Report," technology will get to the point where facial recognition will be used to advertise to you wherever you go, or send governmental propaganda to you wherever you go. . . depending.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.  Eventually, politicians will consider transportation a constitutional right, and take over the "summon a car" service as they did with Amtrak.  The system will deteriorate, and eventually nobody will go anywhere, because the rails and "summon a car" programs will be bankrupt and falling apart without proper maintenance.

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. However, as socialist rule increases, rather than parks we will likely end up with slums and dirt fields where the old carcasses of cars sit to rust.  1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million mi (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.  This will increase world over growth and populations.  However, the technology will be abandoned, and people will find new ways to kill themselves because human nature dictates such.

Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.  Virtual reality will likely change the industry again, and people will be able to travel anywhere they want without ever leaving their living room.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.  Government will step in to try and become the replacement for all kinds of insurance, collapse the system, and leave everyone penniless.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.  Not likely, because the welfare offices are in the cities.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020.  And then be proven to be completely worthless because battery technology is unable to surpass what hydrogen cars can do.  However, since cars will be gone because of the "summon a car" debacle, it won't matter.  While the leftists dream that the Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity, the reality is they will begin a campaign against electrical cars once they realize how much damage to the environment the production of the batteries actually causes.  Electricity will never become incredibly cheap and clean to their liking.  Solar production will also be a failure, leaving a search for new sources of energy for 30 years, that will end in failure.

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last.
Technology will take care of that strategy.  Electricity, however, will still be cheapest when we increase our knowledge regarding nuclear energy.  Government will then decide the electricity is a constitutional right, and grab control of it to guarantee it to everyone.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.  Except that the environmentalists will reject any opportunity to build desalination plants.  Billions will die from contaminated water, and thirst.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.  Government will ensure the technology is only used for the political elite.  Such technology will not be available for the peasants.

It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free.
Goodbye, medical establishment and their absurd medical fees for the ruling elite. . . not so much for the common folk.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. Amazing things are coming fast.

Only the systems for paying for these capabilities remain to be defined.

In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Government, worried about the possibility of individuals using the 3D printers for greedy capitalistic profit make them illegal. . . except for use by political officials who use them to print idols of themselves for the people to worship.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea.

And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

And here's the clincher---Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will not be a lot of new jobs, but don't worry, mama government will give you a mediocre life in the projects.  Equality is the aim. . . equality in misery, anyway.

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.  Then government will pay them not to plant crops.

Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.  Then government will pay them not to supply as well, and then figure out how they can exert control through synthetic or genetically engineered foods that go way beyond GMOs.

There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).  Are you looking forward to your grasshopper bread, ant spread, and bug parts salad?

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not. Those whose moods do not show joy over government control will be arrested.

Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency. Of the world.  But not likely.  Currency will be eliminated, and government will give you credits that expires if not used quickly in order to make it impossible to accumulate wealth.  It will all be managed digitally.

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
But over population will create severe food problems.  Therefore, a Logan's Run scenario may not be simply science fiction.

Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to instant world class education.  But, instead, these devices will be used as they are now. . . to argue with people we don't know on social media sites, and to watch cat videos.

The United States of America will most likely fall to a second world status country due to liberal voting policies.  A Russian political scientist suggested the turmoil would then cause the United States to break up into six new countries.

China will become the primary power of the world, and then collapse when it tries to force communism back into the growing economic system.

Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous potential.  That way, they can more easily be taught what to think, and abandon being infidels against Islam.

We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.  However, that will be rejected and be considered cause for more jihad.

Those of you under 65 today will experience most of these, which means likely you will be wearing a hijab or a turban. . .

Or, if we stay the course, we may possibly miss much of this, and indeed "Make America Great Again."

-- Political Pistachio Conservative News and Commentary

No comments: