By Douglas V. Gibbs
Cuba's economy may completely collapse within the next two or three years, according to a United States diplomatic cable. As a result, the country is trying to adopt less progressive reforms, but it may be too little too late.
Cuba may be able to survive another year or so without substantial policy changes, "but the financial situation could become fatal within 2-3 years," the cable said, predicting that the island "would become insolvent as early as 2011."
The Chinese have been complaining about problems getting loans repaid, and in particular a Cuban request to extend from one year to four years the amount of time it has to repay credit.
It is common knowledge that Cuba is on the edge of financial ruin, and it can no longer sustain its wide array of entitlement programs, which include government health care, free education, nearly free transportation, housing and utilities. All Cubans also receive a ration book that provides them with some basic food, though not enough to live on. The state-dominated economic system is riddled with inefficiency, and it is unclear if the reforms being put into place now will be enough to save the island's perennially weak economy. So far, Cuba's attempts at agricultural and other reforms has been ineffective. The situation may worsen if economic or political problems involving Cuba's top ally, Venezuela, becomes unstable. Cuba receives billions of dollars worth of oil a year from Venezuela at greatly subsidized prices in exchange for the services of Cuban doctors and other help.
Cuba's direction and leadership, considering the ages of the Castro brothers that rule the island, remains muddled and unclear. Reforms interfere with their tight grip of power, but without the reforms, Cuba's future is uncertain, and probably one of economic collapse.
Yet another example of how wherever liberalism is tried, it fails.
-- Political Pistachio Conservative News and Commentary
US cable: Cuba to be insolvent within 2-3 years - Associated Press/Yahoo News
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