Obamacare: the mere idea of a bill that would move1/6th of the economy under government control has brought fear among businesses around the nation. Since Barack Obama's ascendancy and his jamming of his healthcare proposal through Congress, the US has experienced the longest period of near double digit unemployment since the Great Depression. In fact, his job record makes Jimmy Carter look like a president of accomplishment. The reason for the drop of jobs being linked to government healthcare is simple. This bill is already putting a financial drain on businesses in new taxes and in a dramatic increase in the cost of their health insurance programs. Furthermore, the uncertainties that come from the bill makes companies reluctant to hire employees because of the potential reach in regulations and further taxes that the bill might have on the economy.
The National Center for Policy Analysis, citing research from the Wall Street Journal, notes that "Recently, the President's National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform proposed cutting Medicare funding to train doctors by $60 billion through 2020. If this cut is enacted, the current doctor shortage would get far worse, says Herbert Pardes, president and CEO of New York-Presbyterian Hospital." This is all part of the paradox of the President's approach to healthcare. On the one hand, he wants to insure the tens of millions who are believed to be without healthcare, but also wants to dramatically cut the dollars necessary to take care of those people.
This joins another disturbing trend, according to the article which is the fact that "30 percent of hospitals lose money, according to the American Hospital Association, and even more barely break even. Health care reform will add an estimated 32 million people to the ranks of the insured, driving them to seek medical attention that in the past they may have avoided due to expense."
Another important element that is adding to this perfect healthcare storm is the retiring Baby Boom. The article notes that "The aging population will also create much greater demand: The number of seniors who need more medical care is expected to soar to 72 million by 2020 -- nearly double today's number.
But doctors are aging, too: Almost a third of doctors in the country -- about 250,000 -- are over the age of 55." Furthermore, surveys through out the medical profession are suggesting that doctors are about to take flight due to the costs and consequences of Obama's healthcare bill. Surveys are showing that approximately 1/3rd of all doctors are planning on leaving the medical field, with the President's bill being a primary factor. When you consider the incredibly challenging regulations, huge amount of liability, and now, government driven price controls, medical doctors have many reasons to reconsider their future.
The future does not bode well for either doctors or the people who treat them. The Journal notes that "According to a 2010 report by the Association of American Medical Colleges, the increased demand means that our nation will need an additional 130,000 doctors, both general practice physicians and specialists, 15 years from now. That's about 20 percent more doctors than we have currently. Right now we train roughly 16,000 doctors a year. To keep pace with demand, this nation will need to train an additional 6,000 to 8,000 each year for the next 20 years, but without Medicare reimbursements, many hospitals will not be able to afford to maintain critical training programs, says Pardes."
There has been a rise in physician assistants and nurse practitioners, but they cannot do all the functions of medical doctors and even their increase in numbers cannot keep pace with the demand. The only "answer" to this problem will be the rationing of health care through long lines and waiting lists. This approach in other places around the world has had a negative impact on mortality rates. Under Canada's socialized medicine system, many say, "one does not always get access to healthcare, but just a waiting list." This is not the type of change that people have hoped for.
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Kevin Price
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