Rasmussen Poll: This Is Why Iowa Caucus Winners Never Win The GOP Nomination

by JASmius

Well, that's MY preferred headline, anyway:

Representative Michele Bachmann leads all Republican candidates in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of Iowa’s likely caucus participants.

Bachmann, founder of the House Tea Party Caucus, collected 22% of the vote, just ahead of Mitt Romney’s 21%, and Ron Paul was third with 16%.

Texas Governor Rick Perry, who has not announced his White House candidacy, got 12%; Tim Pawlenty, 11%; Newt Gingrich, 5%; Herman Cain, 4%, and Jon Huntsman, 2%.

But 7% said they preferred another candidate, and just 28% of respondents said they are absolutely sure of how they will vote.

Which means this survey is functionally worthless, even it it was predictive of how the eventual Hawkeye Caucii will turn out, even if that result was indicative of who will eventually capture the Republican nomination and most profound honor of butchering Godbama next November.

Now you know why I tend to eschew random polling posts. But, hey, it's a slow news day, aside from the national fiscal meltdown and London in flames and Syria grinding its own people into meatloaf for Ramadan and other minutia like that there.

If you just INSIST on some actual polling analysis, though, Mary Tyler Less is barely ahead because (1) she's a so-con and (2) she's from neighboring Minnesota, which made it easier for her to bus in more of her hardcore supporters, a la the Ronulans. Unlike the last time, Romney, as the annointed "It's his turn" frontrunner, doesn't have to camp out in Iowa and wear out his welcome, which is what set him up to get submarined by Mike Huckleberry in '08. And T-Paw....well, at least he's in double figures after several months of dogged, tireless campaigning.

Or the same place Rick Perry is in without even having to get in the race yet.

$64 question of the day: Does Perry jumping in, as he is expected to do this coming weekend, quickly relegate Bachmann to the also-rans, since Tea Partiers will have a candidate who can actually win versus just a cult figure to go down in flames of purity-righteousness with? Or will TPers foolishly split between them (or, even more foolishly, stubbornly stick with Bachmann) and effectively roll out the red carpet for the grandfather of ObamaCare?

How's that for a suspenseful teaser? See, I can make even the dullest topics sound interesting.

Looks like I've still got it....

[cross posted at Hard Starboard]