Things Change Just In Time for South Carolina Primary

By Douglas V. Gibbs

After Iowa everybody was excited because Romney had met his match in Santorum. The popularity for Rick Santorum drove upward nationally as New Hampshire approached. Romney won New Hampshire as expected, and after all the votes were counted, Santorum edged Gingrich. But the press went wild. Two straight wins for Romney with Iowa and New Hampshire. Could nothing stop Romney?

Then Iowa realized Romney had not won after all. Santorum edged him out.

Mitt Romney was still being called the favorite, even with his capitalism being attacked, and questions about his accounts in the Cayman Islands being raised (which have turned out to be completely legal). Romney felt a little down draft with that, but remained ahead, until. . .

Newt Gingrich decided to begin doing something I have been saying all along is the winning recipe. The more conservative the candidate, the bigger the chance to win. In the General Election, the more conservative the candidate, the greater the margin of victory.

Gingrich, in the last two debates, began to articulate conservatism in a "no fear" manner. Political Correctness went out the window. Worrying about rocking the boat with the truth went out the window. As a result, Newt received standing ovations, and the lead.

The poll numbers in South Carolina have shifted. Voters have been changing their minds about Gingrich, taking him past Mitt Romney into a substantial lead among likely voters. The American Research Group poll, conducted Thursday and Friday, shows Gingrich leading Romney by a 40%-26% margin. ARG's last poll, released Thursday, showed a virtual tie with Gingrich at 33% and Romney at 32%.

This makes the Republican Establishment worry, for it shows how brittle Romney truly is. From the establishment's point of view, Romney has shown himself to be too brittle, Newt Gingrich is too unpredictable, Santorum is too conservative, and Ron Paul is too crazy.

What to do, what to do.

Romney's campaign, if it does not win in South Carolina, will really need the next state, Florida, to recapture the lead. But if Florida takes a queue from South Carolina, and if Santorum has a great debate, this race may continue to be wide open, and in fact begin leaning in the direction of conservatism.

- Tune in today at 2:00 pm Pacific at KCAAradio.com for the "Constitution Radio with Douglas V. Gibbs" show, to hear more analysis on the race, a discussion about brokered conventions, and much more.

-- Political Pistachio Conservative News and Commentary

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2012 South Carolina Primary (Track Live) - Fox News