I am not one to spend too much time relying on polls because I know that they lean to the left. The polls are not there to inform you. The liberal left media uses them to try to influence the vote, and guide the conversation. The pollsters over-sample democrats, under-sample republicans, and while independents are about 27% of the population, they usually sample independents between 1-4%. All in all, the polls usually lean between eight and twelve points to the left of reality.
The closer we get to election day the more interesting the polls have gotten. The needle has been roving to the right, and even in California the GOP ticket of Romney and Ryan has made significant gains. Romney is leading in enough States that it is not only looking like he will win in November, but it may very well be a landslide.
Oh, by the way, yours truly has been telling people it is going to be a landslide republican win across the board (including the GOP taking back the Senate) for a while now.
In California, prior to the first debate, according to a San Francisco CBS television affiliate, Obama was leading by 22 points. After the debate the poll took an eight point swing to the right, giving Obama only a 14 point lead. If I am right about the 8-12% lean to the left, that could very well mean that Obama may only have a two-point lead in California.
It kind of explains why the liberal left democrats are coming apart at the seams as the election season moves closer to completion.
The way the polls swing this way and that, I am not convinced that voters are necessarily changing their minds in such a fashion, to be honest. I am wondering if, as the election nears, the pollsters are realizing how off they are with their liberal bias, and are adjusting to bring the polls closer to reality to save their "credibility" as the crushing GOP win nears.
One thing is for sure. I don't trust the polls, but if the eight to twelve percent tilt I believe is in play is true, Romney leads in nearly all of the States. . . and the Obama-lock States like California are closer than liberal democrats are willing to admit.
-- Political Pistachio Conservative News and Commentary
CBS 5 Poll: Romney Gains 8 Points on Faltering Obama in California - CBS San Francisco
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