Friday, March 21, 2014

Russia Forces Unity, NATO Into Action

By Douglas V. Gibbs

A war in Europe seems imminent to some, and not possible to others.  We have trouble fathoming that in this day and age the raging minds of tyrants are capable to bringing the world to the brink of war as we saw in the last century.  Could a third world war be on the precipice?  Are we ready to cross over beyond an event horizon (much different than the one suggested by CNN regarding a particular Malaysian flight) that includes war with terrible technology that everyone has always been afraid to use?  Russian President Vladimir Putin is guessing that The West is unwilling to take that terrible step, and is pushing Russian expansion in ways that would make Stalin, and Hitler, proud.

While a massive bear is poised to begin engulfing more than just the Crimea, The West sounds like a kennel full of toy dogs, barking to their hearts content, making every threat they can to try to stop the bear, but everybody knows they aren't willing to do more than impose harmless sanctions, and toss around threats they are not willing to back up.  They don't know what to do.  They are, after all, a bunch of utopianists, and utopia is not supposed to include war.  Aren't we supposed to all love each other, because Barack Obama is President of the United States?  Aren't we supposed to be like a bunch of kindergarten kids sharing our toys, and doing what we can to be a good and moral part of the village?

Reality is not something Leftists understand, and they have set this situation up themselves, without ever realizing it.  Their arm-in-arm, We Are The World, Kumbaya, stance is seen as weak by Muslim factions, Russian tyrants, and Far Eastern communists.  So, the aggressors become more aggressive, push a little farther, getting away with whatever they think they can get away with.  The problem is, even tree hugging, peace loving, appeasers like the liberal left pin cushions of The West have their limits.  Even they, the unicorn riding utopia seekers, are willing to recognize reality when it slaps them upside the head enough times.

If ever there was something that unites democrats and republicans in the United States, it is the necessity to defend freedom (well, more free than the nations being run by bigger tyrants than Obama, anyway) against a growing horde threatening to spill over into the more civilized world.  If ever there was something that even makes the utopian socialists with rainbow peace symbols on their desk, next to their golden statues of Buddha, willing to take up arms, it is a tyrant that takes control without using the ol' creeping incrementalism method.

In response to sanctions against Russia, Putin has frozen the assets of a select handful of high-profile Americans and banned them from travel inside Russia.  The response was one of pride, and unity.  The Americans see it as a badge of honor to be among the people Putin has gone after, and they have united in their defiance against Moscow.

Among the sanctioned Americans are Republican Senator Dan Coats of Indiana, and Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, who are the chairman and a ranking member, respectively, of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Homeland Security.

“While I’m disappointed that I won’t be able to go on vacation with my family in Siberia this summer, I am honored to be on this list," Coats said. "Putin’s recent aggression is unacceptable, and America must join with our European allies to isolate and punish Russia. I will continue to lead efforts on Capitol Hill to bring Putin to his senses.”

“Being sanctioned by President Putin is a badge of honor,” Landrieu said. “It will not stop me from using my power as chair of the Energy Committee to promote America as an energy superpower and help increase energy exports around the world."

Some officials expressed mocked outrage for being left off of Putin's list.

The G8 Summit is dead, and the response to Putin's sanctions tell him that his own mocking of The West over their near-meaningless sanctions against Russia fell on deaf ears.  The West is mocking him right back.

Meanwhile, sanctions from The West against Moscow are heightening, affecting Putin’s inner circle, and a Russian bank.  The West is also threatening to go after the Russian economy should Putin push farther, should the Russian President decide to do something like impose Russian troops in Ukraine in order to slice off a piece of the republic for annexation to the rising Russian empire, or work to annex yet another small republic (or piece of one) as they did with Crimea.

The memory of Russia's move against Georgia in 2008, and annexing South Ossetia, is still fresh in the memories of western nations.  The current crisis regarding Ukraine and Crimea has renewed the attention of NATO, after decades of shifting worries elsewhere since the end of the Cold War.  However, the European nations have cut their military budgets dramatically, as the United States currently plans to reduce its military to a size reminiscent of what it was nearly a century ago.  Meanwhile, during the same time period, Russia has boosted its war machine by 30%.

"This requires a complete reappraisal of how we approach Russia," says Fiona Hill, U.S. national intelligence officer for Russia from 2006 to 2009, who now heads the Europe program at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "Putin has made it very clear he intends to reassert Russia's sphere of influence ... We don't have a strategy to deal with that."

The powers that be see a war in Europe as unlikely, just as Putin hoped they would.  The leaders to the west also recognize that NATO is not equipped to stop Russian invasions, and could not legally stop it regarding former Soviet states outside the alliance.  However, with the rise of the latest threat, there will be renewed interest in allowing Ukraine and Georgia into NATO.

What could ignite war are the Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, who are former Soviet republics are now in NATO and therefore protected by treaty.  Under the NATO treaty, if a member is attacked, it requires all members to provide assistance.  As with Ukraine, the three small countries east of the Baltic Sea are home to significant Russian minorities.
War is imminent, if Russia continues to expand.  A European war could become a reality because the very credibility of NATO is at stake, and all credibility is lost if the allies continue to act as if nothing has happened.
This all puts The West in a real pickle.  As they work to diminish their military spending, which is in line with their liberal left ideology, doing so further weakens their ability to respond to an aggressive Russian President, while also telegraphing a signal of weakness, and unwillingness to do anything to stop Moscow's advances.  This will require nations to pool together their resources to respond.  Vladimir Putin, well aware of The West's predicament, will simply wait them out, increasing his military might as they diminish theirs, until the line is finally crossed, and even working together, The West becomes too weak to do anything about the empirical goals of the current Russian leadership.
Besides, the fear of mutual destruction through nuclear weapons remains an ace up Moscow's sleeve.  With the continuing presence of Russian nuclear weapons at the ready, and a reduction of the missile defense system by the United States continuing in Eastern Europe, if The West as much as flinches in a manner not agreeable to Putin, all he has to do is remind them he has a finger hovering over "The Button."
That reminder has already been flashed, as a senior Kremlin-backed broadcaster made an explicit nuclear threat this week, saying Russia remained "capable of turning the United States into radioactive ash".
With the probable western inability to respond to a Russian threat realized, a pair of crises simultaneously with Russia and China would place the United States at a disadvantage, struggling to reinforce both regions.
As for Obama's favorite toy, flying drones, Russia has among the best air defense systems in the world.
-- Political Pistachio Conservative News and Commentary


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