Kansas Democrats pull a stealth switcheroo, and now GOP incumbent Pat Roberts has fallen behind. Meanwhile, Scott Brown closes slightly on Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire.
(Incumbents in bold; all polling via Rasmussen Reports)
SAFE REPUBLICAN
ALABAMA: Jeff Sessions (R) - unopposed
IDAHO: James Risch (R) 54%, Nels Mitchell (D) 29%
MAINE: Susan Collins (R) 59%, Shenna Bellows (D) 31%
MISSISSIPPI: Thad Cochran (R) 48%, Travis Childers (D) 31%
MONTANA: Steve Daines (R) 55%, Amanda Curtis (D) 35% (GOP pickup)
NEBRASKA: Ben Sasse (R) 51%, David Domina (D) 34%
OKLAHOMA: James Inhofe (R) 58%, Matt Silverstein (D) 27%
SOUTH CAROLINA: Lindsey Graham (R) 49%, Brad Hutto (D) 30%
SOUTH DAKOTA: Mike Rounds (R) 44%, Rick Weiland (D) 29%, Larry Pressler (RINO) 18% (GOP pickup)
TEXAS: John Cornyn (R) 47%, David Alameel (D) 29%
TENNESSEE: Lamar Alexander (R) 47%, Gordon Ball (D) 32%
WEST VIRGINIA: Shelly Moore Capito (R) 50%, Natalie Tennant (D) 33% (GOP pickup)
WYOMING: Mike Enzi (R) 63%, Charlie Hardy (D) 27%
SOLID REPUBLICAN
GEORGIA: David Perdue (R) 46%, Michelle Nunn (D) 40%
KENTUCKY: Mitch McConnell (R) 46%, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 41%
LEANING REPUBLICAN
ALASKA: Dan Sullivan (R) 47%, Mark Begich (D) 45% (GOP pickup)
LOUISIANA: Bill Cassidy (R) 44%, Mary Landrieu (D) 41% (GOP pickup)
TOSS-UP
IOWA: Bruce Braley (D) 43%, Joni Ernst (R) 43%
LEANING DEMOCRAT
ARKANSAS: Mark Pryor (D) 44%, Tom Cotton (R) 43%
COLORADO: Mark Udall (D) 44%, Cory Gardner (R) 42%
SOLID DEMOCRAT
KANSAS: Greg Orman ("Independent") 45%, Pat Roberts (R) 40% (Dem pickup)
MICHIGAN: Gary Peters (D) 45%, Terri Lynn Land (R) 39%
MINNESOTA: Al Franken (D) 50%, Mike McFadden (R) 42%
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 48%, Scott Brown (R) 42%
NORTH CAROLINA: Kay Hagen (D) 45%, Tom Tillis (R) 39%
SAFE DEMOCRAT
DELAWARE: Chris Coons (D) 49%, Kevin Wade (R) 34%
HAWAII: Brian Schatz (D) 60%, Cam Cavasso (R) 28%
ILLINOIS: Ali Dickbar al-Durbini (D) 48%, Jim Oberweis (R) 38%
MASSACHUSETTS: Ed Markey (D) - no polling, prohibitive favorite
NEW JERSEY: Corey Booker (D) 48%, Jeff Bell (R) 35%
NEW MEXICO: Tom Udall (D) 54%, Allen Weh (R) 33%
OREGON: Jeff Merkley (D) 48%, Monica Wehby (R) 35%
RHODE ISLAND: Jack Reed (D) - no polling, prohibitive favorite
VIRGINIA: Mark Warner (D) 53%, Ed Gillespie (R) 36%
HIGH: GOP picks up Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alaska, Louisiana, Iowa, Arkansas, and Colorado, but loses Kansas, for a net gain of seven seats and a 52-48 majority in the next U.S. Senate.
MEDIAN: GOP picks up Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alaska, Louisiana, and maybe Iowa, but loses Kansas, for a gain of four or five seats and either a 50-50 split or a 51-49 deficit in the next U.S. Senate.
LOW: GOP picks up Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, but the Democrats pick up Kansas, for a net GOP gain of two seats, leaving the Democrats to retain a 53-47 majority in the next U.S. Senate.
Last week Tom Tillis's North Carolina campaign collapsed, this week Kansas incumbent Republican Pat Roberts gets submarined by a classic Donk shell game. The Democrat candidate, Chad Taylor, "implicitly" withdrew and in swooped "independent" Greg Orman like Robert Redford in The Candidate, spouting all the usual, clichéd pap about "independence" and not being "beholden" to any party that so foolishly appeals to the LIVs and NIVs, of which even a "red" State like Kansas, it seems, has an overabundance. Kansas's GOP Secretary of State, Kris Kobach, contested Taylor's withdrawal, but the Kansas Supreme Court overruled her, and the Dems have their stealth candidate and a sudden five point lead over Senator Roberts.
Karl Rove said in his Wall Street Journal column this week that the problem is the GOP getting outraised and outspent by the Dems. That's certainly part of it; to quote Peter Pevensie in Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch & The Wardrobe when his centaur lieutenant told him that numbers do not win a battle, "No; but I bet they help." The same applies for money in election campaigns.
But the problem is more than that. The Republicans should have every structural advantage: Barack Obama's approval ratings are in the toilet, the "six year itch" (the out party historically always makes big gains in the sixth year of a presidency). Even if the Dems have a nominal money advantage, the GOP should simply be doing better than this. And yet it is precisely now that their chances are precipitously fading.
The reason appears to be what the party's incompetent political consultants don't want to hear: There's no clear, contrasting, bold, nationalized message. As in 2012, social issues are either being conceded or 'Pubbies are actively aping Donk stances on them. Even their economic message is vague. Genuine independents want bold colors, not pale pastels, and yet once again, Republicans appear to be playing not to lose by simply being "not Obama". And once again, that "strategy" is not working, and causing what should be a walkover to a Senate majority to rapidly unravel.
The GOP always has had the reputation of being the "Stupid Party" always capable of pulling any defeat from the jaws of victory. Incredibly, that history appears to be repeating itself. Is 44 days enough time to avert this crushing electoral catastrophe? Who the hell knows? But for those of you who still think the Republic is resurrectable, you'd better pray to God it is, and that Republicans don't squander it.
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