Ah, yes, Louie Gohmert. I'd completely forgotten about him.
Well, gents, may the best man win:
Representative Louie Gohmert of Texas-1 has joined Representative Ted Yoho of Florida-3 to challenge House Speaker John Boehner as he seeks re-election as House Speaker on Tuesday.
Ouch. I'd forgotten about Mr. Yoho(ho, who's gonna know?) as well. So he's running for Speaker too, huh? Thus dividing the conservative vote and ensuring that Boehner will retain the third-ranking post in the federal government. Lovely. Why can't we rightwingers ever "take one for the team" and unify behind the strongest single candidate? Couldn't Yoho be convinced to stand aside so that Gohmert would at least have a clear, unobstructed run at the Ohioan?
Especially in light of this polling detail:
Gohmert said he is running because a recent poll showed that 60% of those who voted Republican in November's midterms did so because they wanted a different speaker. And 25% of them said they will not vote for the GOP in 2016 if there isn't a change. [emphasis added]
The GOP took 53% of the total nationwide vote on November 4th. Take away 15% of it and they'd drop to 46%, which is approximately where they were in 2006 and 2008 when they lost a combined fifty-six seats. Now who knows if that 25% of 60% will still feel that way twenty-two months from now, but it's certainly an ominous statistic, particularly given that ticket-splitting is much more rare than it used to be.
Of course, it's not as though the top of the ticket in presidential election years doesn't have a vastly larger influence down-ballot than who the House Speaker is does up-ballot, so your mileage may vary, as it were. But still, why risk it? John Boehner, God love him, is a spent force. I've speculated more than once on whether he even still wanted the House's top job, and it's pretty clear that whether or not he was ever quite up to it, the CRomnibus fiasco amply demonstrated that he certainly isn't now. It's like when a starting pitcher starts getting tired late in a baseball game and gets in a bases-loaded jam; if you're the manager, what do you do? Lose the game or take out the starter and put in a reliever?
Unfortunately, politics is not baseball. Boehner is actually the "manager" in that metaphor, and he isn't likely to send himself to the showers. Which gets back to Ted Yoho clogging up the Speaker selection process. If the contest were a, um, "three-way" between Boehner, Nancy Pelosi, and Gohmert, and the latter edged out Boehner for second place (assuming that 60% figure translated to the GOP caucus vote), then, per House rules, a second, head-to-head matchup would ensure Gohmert got the gavel and Boehner was deposed. But with Yoho getting in the way - and he declared his Speaker candidacy before Gohmert did, so he's got a head-start of sorts - the chances of Boehner surviving are dramatically enhanced.
Or maybe nobody is taking this "insurgency" seriously outside the GOP grassroots and Gohmert and Yoho will be mercilessly crushed like overripe grapes. Recall that there are only (and allegedly, since most won't publicly out themselves) a maximum of eighteen Boehner opponents, and twenty-nine votes are needed to deny Boehner an outright majority on the first ballot. Although at least some in the "establishment" appear to be sufficiently skittish that they're circulating fearmongering disinformation:
Typically, there are only two candidates for House Speaker, one Democrat and one Republican, with the candidate for the majority party winning. Gohmert said that many in the party establishment have warned that if more than one Republican runs it could hand the speakership to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.
Which could only happen if at least fifty-nine Republicans abstain from voting at all, which isn't very bloody likely. I mean, if Ted Cruz (1) voted in the Senate Majority Leader contest and (2) voted for Mitch McConnell, does anybody believe that the biggest GOP majority in eighty-six years would allow the Big Gavel to fall into Crazy Nancy's hands again? We all know the Republicans are the "Stupid Party," but let's not abuse the privilege, shall we?
It's been ninety-two years since there was more than one round of voting for House Speaker. Here's hoping Ted Yoho gets a clue and bows out so that Louis Gohmert has a chance to make things interesting. After all, the longevity of the GOP House majority may depend on it.
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