I just love Wild Card weekend. Partly because it's the playoffs, even though first round matchups are occasionally compelling but mostly less "hit" and more "miss," and mostly because the World Champs again have the #1 seed in the NFC and a very much needed first round bye to try and get defensive tackle Jordan Hill (the pleasant surprise who filled in, well, hugely after Brandon Mebane went down with a torn hamstring two months ago, having suffered a sprained knee last week against the Rams), wide receiver Jermaine Kearse (hamstring), and outside linebacker K.J. Wright (finger) ready to roll. I can settle in my comfortable recliner on Saturday afternoon and, with sleep, food, and potty breaks, watch (almost) every snap of all four games straight through Sunday evening. And best of all, I can scout (for my own amusement) Seattle's likely first
Speaking of which.....
This less than scintillating matchup being the Saturday early game was such a fait accompli that I didn't bother to look it up. To say that it is not just not ready for prime time, but criminally unworthy of it, is a gaping understatement.
The NFC South Champion (hyuk) Carolina Panthers became only the second team ever (the 2010 Seahawks were the other) to win its division and host a playoff game off of a losing regular season record (7-8-1). (Which illustrates why home field advantage in the playoffs should be based on regular season record and not playoff seeding if the league wants to avoid such embarrassing miscarriages of justice. But I digress.) The swerve is that a month ago, the Panthers were 3-8-1, and hadn't won a game in two months. But somebody had to win the NFC South, and all it took was one of its four sadsacks putting together a late season run to take the title and set themselves up for a one-and-done.
So why do I think Carolina is going to win this game? Certainly not all the sudden buzz swirling about them for their current four-game winning streak, as not one of those four victories came against a winning team (three of them were divisional games, and the fourth was against the collapsing, Johnny Manziel-misled Cleveland Browns). While it is true that if you're going to get hot, the stretch run is the best time to do it, and quarterback Cam Newton is getting healthier, and running back DeAngelo Williams is picking up the rushing pace (#7), none of that would matter - ordinarily.
However, the situation with the Panthers' opponent is far from ordinary. Six weeks ago the Arizona Cardinals had the best record in the NFL (9-1) and a three-game lead in the NFC West, even if they were getting insanely lucky with every bounce and call, and otherwise surviving on a steady diet of turnovers, resulting short fields, and taking three or four long shots down the field most of which they cashed in. In other words, they were overachieving unconscionably, and it was just a question of when their carriage was going to turn back into a pumpkin. The 19-3 thumpin' the Seahawks laid on them in Week 12 started what in stock trading is known as a "correction," and the proverbial wheels started coming off, as in lugnuts shooting in every direction like micromissiles. The luck ran out, the turnovers dried up, starting quarterback Carson Palmer blew out a knee, backup Drew Stanton sprained one of his, and by the time they were hanging by a thread in the NFC West showdown against the Champs, they were down to starting a signal caller (Ryan Lindley) that had never thrown a touchdown pass and hadn't taken a single snap in two years. The greatest NFL defense of the twenty-first century messily devoured him, the Cards got blown out 35-6 (would have been 44-6 if Pro Bowl kicker Steven Hauschka hadn't left his aim in his other pants), and they were Wild Card-bound.
Arizona, not to put too fine a point on it, is a mess. The only statistical category in which the have any edge over the Panthers is rushing defense (#13 to Carolina's #16). They can't run, Lindley can't pass, and their defense has collapsed after the Champs laid 597 yards and a bushel of big plays on them two weeks ago.
It really doesn't matter how well Carolina is or is not playing. With the condition the Cardinals are in right now, it's questionable whether they could beat anybody, and they certainly won't do so today in Charlotte.
Arizona
Carolina* (-4.5)
Rivalry games always have an enhanced level of unpredictability, especially in the playoffs. But contra the usual exaggerations of that caveat, you really can't throw the stat book out the window.
The bottom line at Heinz Field tonight is this: Both teams are terrific against the run (Baltimore #4, Pittsburgh #6), and both teams suck against the pass ( Baltimore #23, Pittsburgh #27). But the Steelers and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger boast the league's #2 passing attack, while Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco is a pedestrian #13.
'nuff said, whether or not star running back Le'Veon Bell can suit up.
Baltimore
Pittsburgh* (-3)
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