And we all know why, because it's the same government shutdown phobia from which the GOP leadership has suffered for almost twenty years. They are absolutely, positively convinced that they cannot win any such showdown, under any circumstances - even on an issue on which three-quarters of the voting public would be loudly and raucously behind them. It's why they punted during the lame duck session, and why the Senate Majority Leader is retreating within his "shell" now:
Days away from a Homeland Security Department shutdown, Senate Republicans sought a way out Monday by breaking contested immigration measures off the agency's funding bill and offering them for a stand-alone vote.
It was not clear whether the gambit by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell would succeed ahead of Friday's midnight deadline to fund the department or see it shut down. It was far from certain whether it would win any Democratic support, and House conservatives remain firmly opposed to any funding bill for the Homeland Security Department that does not also overturn President Barack Obama's executive actions on immigration.
This isn't a complete el foldo. By keeping the DHS bill intact, Senate Dems can be painted as sacrificing defense against jihadist attacks to their demigod's unlawful amnesty decree. But since McConnell is convinced that the GOP will be blamed for that instead, he's seeking to split up the bill so that that blame will be defused, since the majority will have offered a "clean" DHS bill while still omitting the Obamnesty funding. That way, Dems lose the excuse for their filibuster, and if they continue to block both, their true motivations are that much more visible.
The problem is, there's only a few days in which to work that angle, and the Democrats in the Beltway/media complex have had weeks to gin up the "racist Republicans want to let jihadists run wild because they hate Hispanics" Narrative. In short, it's not a question of forfeiting their leverage, because clearly the media will never call Senate Dems on their filibuster, so the GOP never had any to begin with. The issue is that the Republican leadership remains passive and reactive rather than aggressively proactive. They could have had this showdown in December, but chickened out on it. Once the 114th Congress was sworn in, they had to be bold, as befitted their enhanced, dual-majority status, and have an aggressive strategy in place from day one. Instead, they've left most of the battlefield to the Donks, and now it's the final week (again) and they're at their usual disadvantage, and are having to scramble to grasp at strategy reeds they should have pursued from the beginning - thus reducing their effectiveness, since this desperation fits right in with the aforementioned Democrat Narrative.
How behind the metaphorical eight-ball is the GOP on this? Charles Krauthammer is urging them to nuke not just the confirmation filibuster, but the entire filibuster altogether. Charles Krauthammer. Not exactly a Tea Party revolutionary. But though late to the party, he's absolutely right. Except that that move, again, would be so late to the party that it would easily be made to look like the Republicans will do anything to "rob hard-working Latinos of their shot at the American dream". This, too, is something that should have been done six weeks ago.
You can't go to war while leaving behind most of your arsenal. But then, if you're not willing to use most of your arsenal anyway, why bother going to war in the first place? Mitch McConnell (not John Boeher, though) is creating every appearance of being as unenthusiastic about fighting the White House on Obamnesty as Barack Obama is about fighting the Islamic State.
I hope I'm still wrong about that, just as I hope that this gambit succeeds. But the doubts are becoming harder and harder to ignore.
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