Notice that they're not saying he can't, or that it would be inordinately difficult to do without a huge campaign apparatus (which Trump does not yet have) or a supporting party infrastructure or a helluva lot more time in which to set it up to get him on the ballot in all fifty States. Although I don't think he'd have to get on the ballot as an "independent" in all of them, just the dozen or so "battleground/swing" States that actually determine presidential elections anymore, which is why candidates never bother showing up anywhere else. They're saying he won't, as in he wouldn't, as in they're trusting every time he says he "wants to run as a Republican" and ignoring every time he refuses to support the eventual nominee and waxes nauseous about all the people on the campaign trail urging him to go third party.
It's almost as if a party this stupid deserves to be betrayed:
Having considered these factors, Republicans appear widely to have decided it best to not take Trump’s threat seriously. Underpinning this conclusion is a sense among Republicans that Trump, while certainly wealthy enough to fund a third-party bid, would not ultimately have the stomach for such a herculean undertaking. Even if ballot access and funding were not at issue, the campaign would almost surely be a losing one.
“I don’t think he wants to spend half a billion dollars or more nor deal with the logistics to run a serious outsider independent campaign,” said one strategist for a competing Republican campaign. “So the only reason he is contemplating it is either (as an) empty threat, or he is a stalking horse for Hillary.”
Republican donor Fred Malek echoed to the Associated Press recently, “He’s a businessman who will look at his potential for winning and decide it will be a poor return on his investment.”…
“Don’t placate, hammer him,” [Koch Industries director of communications Steven] Lombardo tweeted. “A damaged Trump is far less likely to run as Indie.” [emphasis added]
Well, at least one "GOP insider" has figured it out. The rest of them are refusing to think outside the box. If Trump solely cared about actually winning himself, then sure, why would he go the third-party route, where defeat would be assured? But if he's in the race solely to sabotage the Republicans and pave the way for President Rodham, then it makes perfect sense, and the question would be why wouldn't he go indy?
Futhermore, Eeyore makes a very good point about Trump being able to bypass all that State-by-State infrastructure and enormous cost. Reportedly one reason why campaign manager Roger Stone left Trump's campaign was because he was urging Trump to make campaign advertising buys for the next few months - conventional political consultant thinking if ever it existed. But Trump can get billions of dollars in free media time anytime he wants, just by placing a phone call - why should he bother buying ads? And as to getting on State ballots across the country, why not go the write-in route? Maybe even buy advertising time to run a blitz next year asking everybody to write in the name "Trump" - which everybody knows and is easily spelled - on general election ballots to "send a message" to the "establishment," yata, yata, yata. You'll recall that that worked for Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) in her 2010 reelection campaign after she lost the GOP primary to a Tea Partier (Joe Miller). Would it get Trump elected POTUS? No, but it would probably garner him at least as big a vote haul as Ross Perot took in 1996 (9% or so). And that would be more than enough to turn what would otherwise be a Scott Walker landslide into a narrow Hillary Clinton (or whomever) victory.
The bottom line is, Trump doesn't have to do much in order to screw the Republicans out of regaining the White House. That that is his primary purpose in this race is beyond argument. When "GOP insiders" will figure this out is probably in their next "post mortem" long about the year 2018.
No comments:
Post a Comment