Voters, Polls, and The Bradley Effect

Obama has consistently been ahead in the polls. But are the polls any indication of what the final result will be? Do voters answer the poll questions honestly? Are blacks saying in the polls that they plan to vote for Obama reasoning that they must vote that way in order to not betray their race, feeling obligated to answer that way, even though they may very well vote differently? Are whites saying in the polls they plan to vote for Obama for fear that they may be considered racist, while secretly considering voting for McCain?

Inaccurate voter opinion polls are nothing new, especially in American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate. The term Bradley effect refers to a phenomenon which has led to inaccurate voter opinion polls in the past. The name Bradley effect comes from the 1982 campaign involving a black politician, Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, California. Bradley ran for Governor of California against Republican candidate George Deukmejian, who was white. The polls on the final days before the election consistently showed Bradley with a lead. The exit polls on election day also projected a Bradley win.
The following morning's San Francisco Chronicle went as far as to feature a headline proudly stating: "BRADLEY WIN PROJECTED". But after all the votes were counted, despite the heavy lead in the polls, Bradley narrowly lost the race. Research later indicated that a smaller percentage of white voters actually voted for Bradley than polls had predicted, and many voters who had been classified "undecided" had gone to Deukmejian too.

In the current race for President, it makes me wonder if the statistically significant numbers of white voters telling pollsters in advance of this election that they are undecided, or are likely to vote for Obama, are planning on taking a completely different opinion with them into the voting booth on election day. When pulling the lever, will these white voters that claimed they were undecided break in statistically large numbers toward McCain? And will many of the white voters who said that they were likely to vote for Barack Obama ultimately cast their ballot for McCain as well? And are blacks that are enthusiastically saying they plan to vote for Obama truly going to do so when in the privacy of the voting booth, without any pressure from their peers?

It may be that the privacy of a voting booth has a tendency to change people's opinions, and that change may not be favorable for Obama.

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Also posted on A Newt One