Russian Tank Column Enters Southeast Ukraine

by JASmius

Oh, my apologies, Vlad, "humanitarian aid column".  I'm sure the Ukrainians will understand:

A column of Russian tanks and armored vehicles has crossed into southeastern Ukraine, away from where most of the intense fighting has been taking place, a top Ukrainian official said Monday.

Colonel Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for Ukraine's National Security Council, told reporters that the column of 10 tanks, two armored vehicles and two trucks crossed the border near Shcherbak and that the nearby city of Novoazovsk was shelled during the night from Russia. He said they were Russian military vehicles bearing the flags of the separatist Donetsk rebels.

I guess the "separatist Donetsk rebels" have decided to do more than "separate".

In Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Monday he had no information about the column.

Natch.

Leaving aside Kremlin compost for a moment, what strategic objectives could be in the Russians' sights with this effective second front?:

The reported incursion and shelling could indicate an attempt to move on Mariupol, a major port on the Azov Sea, an arm of the Black Sea. Mariupol lies on the main road between Russia and Ukraine's Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which Russia annexed in March. Capturing Mariupol could be the first step in building a slice of territory that links Russia with Crimea.

There's the strategic objective.

Although Mariupol is in Ukraine's separatist Donetsk region, most of the fighting between separatist rebels and Ukrainian troops has been well to the north, including around the city of Donetsk, the rebels' largest stronghold. A full offensive in the south could draw Ukrainian forces away from the fight for Donetsk.

Aaaaaaaand there's the tactical goal.  The colloquial expressions are "death by a thousand cuts" and "getting nibbled to death by ducks".  Ukrainian forces have worn down and gotten the upper hand on the "rebels" over the past few months.  Invading southeastern Ukraine gives the defenders something new to worry about and at least reduces the pressure on "separatists" in the northeast, preserving their redoubts and enabling them to rest, recuperate, rearm, and resume their offensive westward.

It also keeps Russia's invasion of Ukraine at a low level, largely off the Western media radar screens, and thus minimizes the pressure on Barack Obama to look like he's doing something about Czar Vlad's aggression beyond his incessant clucking about "isolation" from the "international community," which I'm sure entertains Mr. Putin to no end.  Eventually, inevitably, Ukraine will collapse, and Russian "humanitarian aid" will vastly increase to include "assisting in local governance," and then the Baltic States will suddenly begin encountering "separatist" difficulties.  Rather like a tsunami of molasses: You know it's coming, but there's no urgency to it until you belatedly look up just as it's about to crush you.

But if Vlad's patience wanes, or O shockingly snaps and morphs into George Patton or something, the Russian strongman is more than prepared....