Friday, October 31, 2014

Expect Runoffs, Recounts Before Senate Control Is Decided

by JASmius

Consider this a sneak preview of my final Senate race picks at midnight Tuesday:

Experts are predicting that it could be days or even months before voters know which party will take control of the Senate, should one or two key races be forced into a runoff or if results are so close they require a recount.


Nate Silver of said that in Georgia and Louisiana the probability is high that a victory will not be called on Election Night if any of the candidates fail to get the required 50% support needed to claim victory.

"A runoff in Georgia remains more likely than not. Our model gives [Republican David] Perdue about a 30% chance of winning outright on November 4th, while [Democrat Michelle] Nunn is down to only about a 10% chance of doing so. The rest of the time, the race will be runoff-bound," said the former New York Times statistician.

Georgia's runoff would take place on January 6th, three days after the opening of the 114th Congress.


"Louisiana tops the list. Its November 4th 'jungle primary'....

Nothing racist about that nickname, is there?

....ballot includes eight candidates; the top two will advance to a December 6th runoff if none wins a majority on November 4th."

Silver's model currently predicts that Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu will get 45% or 46% of the vote, while Republican Bill Cassidy is on track to get 41% or 42%.

"A runoff is very likely," he said.


Meanwhile, in Alaska, where the polls close at 1:00 a.m. Eastern time, there is a chance that officials may not be able to call the race if the candidates come within a few points of each other.

"Our assumption is that either [incumbent Democratic Senator Mark] Begich or [GOP challenger Dan] Sullivan would have to win by at least five percentage points for Alaska to be declared in time for the evening news on November 5th," Silver writes.

"Our model says there's about a 30% chance of that, and a 70% chance that things will take at least a little longer."


Larry Sabato predicts an avalanche of photo-finishes and accompanying recounts, which is to say that he might as well declare that the Democrats are going to retain majority control of the Senate, because Democrats haven't lost a recount anywhere, in any race, at any level, since the 2000 presidential election.

I also happen to agree with that assessment.

Though I differ with Mr. Sabato on the "chaos" it will create in Washington, D.C., because Washington, D.C. has been in chaos for going on six years, so it's something to which We, The People should have become comfortably acclimated a very long time ago.

Besides, that will be far from the only source of Beltway chaos:

With the prospect of a Republican takeover of the Senate, Democrats are making a final pitch to Latino voters, asserting President Obama has existing legal authority to take executive action on immigration.

In an op-ed published Thursday on, Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi and Representatives Luis V. Gutierrez of Illinois-4 and Zoe Lofgren of California-19 make the case that "Congress and the Constitution give presidents broad authority to take executive action on immigration policy" and that the authority has been used by past presidents."

In addition to taking steps to make our immigration enforcement efforts more humane, there are dozens of reforms that the President can adopt. Two that could have the greatest impact involve the expanded use of his deferred action and 'parole' authorities," wrote the Democratic House members in a message posted in English and Spanish.

Which, of course, is why there have been endless, stubborn congressional "gang" efforts to cram illegal immigration amnesty down the throats of an American public that vehemently opposes it be never less than a two to one margin.

Article I, Section 1, again:

ALL legislative Powers herein [i.e. in the U.S. Constitution] granted shall be vested in a Congress of the United States, which shall consist of a Senate and House of Representatives.

Don't believe them, readers.  Most, if not all, of the vast, sprawling, leviathantine Executive Branch bureaucracy is gapingly unconstitutional, much less Godbama legislatively decreeing amnesty.

The only saving grace may be how few readers may actually be literate.

The reason for this tyrannical twaddle?  Simple polling logic:

Noting President Obama's pledge to take executive action on immigration after the elections, the Democrats say they "look forward to the President’s bold and meaningful action to improve the lives of Americans and immigrants alike and advance the interests of our nation."

The Univision message came a day after Pew Research reported that Latino support for Democrats has fallen, although they continue to have a healthy advantage over Republicans.

The nationwide survey of adults found that Latino registered voters are less supportive of the Democratic Party than in previous election cycles. In 2012, 70% of Hispanic voters said they identify with the Democratic Party, compared to today when 63% said they lean Democrat.

In addition, 50% of respondents said Democrats were more concerned about Latino interests than Republicans, which is down from 61% in 2012.

Frantic pandering to Hispanics that O will import all of Latin American later this month, and frantic pandering to black Americans that if they don't get out and vote Democrat early and often, white cops will shoot all their children like the death angel sweeping through Egypt on the first Passover.  You could almost get the idea that Democrats think they're about to get wiped out....

But we all know better.

Don't we?

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