Sunday, October 19, 2014

NFL Week 7 Predictions

by JASmius



LAST WEEK STRAIGHT UP: 11-3-1
LAST WEEK vs. SPREAD: 8-7

SEASON STRAIGHT UP: 57-33-1
SEASON vs. SPREAD: 42-49

Two straight weeks of the prognosticatory quality I still, for some unfathomable reason, expect of myself.  I'd better shut up before I jinx myself.

One of the three games I missed is the one on which I have to eat a mountain of crow bigger than the Chrysler Building.  So here goes, before the dreadful anticipation makes me wharf like an ebola patient: "How 'bout them Cowboys?" <shudder>

No, I didn't lose a bet on that contest that took place last week at Century Link Field.  I'm simply not a homer, and I'm intellectually honest.

Nor am I repentant of the dismissive comments I made about the Cowboys the week before.  Jerry Jones's football team has been a bucket of warm piss since the late 1990s.  The epitome of mediocrity.  A record of 136-136 coming into this season over that time.  Last year they had not only the worst defense in the league but one of the worst in NFL history, and what was their top draft priority?  Offense.  Tony Romo is 34 and coming off of offseason back surgery, and is no better than a second-tier quarterback even when healthy.  Yes, the Cowboys (#14 in my power rankings going into last weekend) had won four in a row, but those four victories came at the expense of Tennessee (#29), St. Louis (#28), New Orleans (#16), and Houston (#23).  Their lone defeat was to the 49ers (#10).  Now they were facing the Champs (#3) where we (almost) never lose.  And the last time Dallas visited the Clink, in 2012, we blew them out 27-7.  Nobody had any reason to expect any different of a result, other than perhaps an even bigger beat-down.  And nobody did.

I heard it reported Sunday morning that Double-J Googley-Eyes snickered, "We're gonna give 'em the business".  In what was undoubtedly a "yardstick" contest for his club, that is precisely what they did.

Dallas won 30-23, but this is a classic example of a game not nearly as close as the score indicated.  That score would have been more like 30-6.  The only reason why the game was as tight as it was because of the 'boys' usual selves showing through at times (first quarter blocked punt for a Seattle touchdown, two fumbles in the third quarter that we cashed in for ten points more).  But in straight-up, eleven-on-eleven, line-of-scrimmaging, folks, there's no other way to put it: They kicked our asses.  Their O line dominated our D line; Demarco Murray collected 115 rushing yards, equaling Jim Brown's NFL record of six straight hundred+ yard games to open a season (the Cowboys picked up 162 overall); Tony Romo put up Russell Wilson-esque numbers: 21-32, 250 yards, 2 TDs....zero interceptions.  They went 10 for 17 on third downs.  They held the ball for 37:39.  They mounted four or five long scoring drives, including the eighty yard game-winning TD march in the fourth quarter with the game on the line.  I believe the old term for this sort of thing used to be "man-handling".

But everybody knew Dallas had a great O line and the league's top rushing attack.  What drained the electric blue and neon green from our faces was that their defense was even better than their offense.

Marshawn Lynch: stuffed for 62 yards (We rushed for 80 yards overall).  Russell Wilson: 14 for 28, 126 yards, zero TDs, and a pick - and he should have thrown at least two more on plays where he was running for his life (not unusual) but threw into coverage instead of throwing it away (unheard of).  In a word, RW3 looked....rattled.  RW3 never looks rattled.  But he did last Sunday.  It was his worst performance since the Cardinals game in Week 16 last year, which, unsurprisingly, is the other home loss on Mr. Wilson's resume.

Where was I?  Percy Harvin had -1 yards from scrimmage.  5 for 13 on third downs.  One, count it, one sustained drive.  Doubled up in rushing yards, passing yards, and total yards.  Gave up thirty points for the second time in a month, versus once all of last season.

But here's the real kicker: In a Cowboys-Seahawks game, which would we be more likely to see unfold on the sidelines: Dez Bryant blowing his stack at Tony Romo (as has happened countless times the past few seasons) or Doug Baldwin blowing his stack at Russell Wilson?  Well, last Sunday at the Clink, a wide receiver erupted at his quarterback, and it wasn't Dez Bryant blistering Tony Romo.

Bottom line?  Dallas didn't just beat the Champs; the Cowboys were, and are, better.  I don't want to overreact here, but seeing as how the Saints have face-planted, the Eagles still have no detectable defense, the 49ers are in turmoil, the Cardinals are the Cardinals, and the Packers aren't quite Super Bowl caliber, I think we just might have seen the passing of the NFC torch.

Which means I've got to listen to that accursed slogan several gajillion more times over the next four months.

At least I only had to say it once.

[Straight up picks indicated by asterisk (*); picks against the spread in parentheses (x).]

Atlanta
Baltimore* (-6.5)

Carolina
Green Bay* (-7)

Cincinnati
Indianapolis* (-3)

Cleveland* (-5)
Jacksonville

Kansas City (+4)
San Diego*

Miami
Chicago* (-3.5)

Minnesota
Buffalo* (-4)

New Orleans
Detroit* (-2.5)

N.Y. Giants
Dallas* (-5.5)

Arizona* (-3.5)
Oakland

San Francisco
Denver* (-7)

Seattle* (-6.5)
St. Louis

Tennessee
Washington* (-4.5)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Houston (+3.5)
Pittsburgh*

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