The expected divisional playoff victory in hand, the defending Super Bowl champions roll on to the NFC Championship Game next week and sit back today to see who their opponent will be. And once again, though form, seeding, and home field advantage suggest that it will be one team, my stubborn gut keeps prodding me that it will be the other club that swaggers its way into the Clink in seven days.
I, quite simply, hate seasons when a large percentage of games don't go according to the numbers. I'm a numbers guy; I play the percentages. I don't purposely pick upsets, and when I do, it's only because that's the predicted result my numbers indicate for that game in that week.
Take this morning's game on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field between the NFC North Champion Green Bay Packers and the NFC East Champion Dallas Cowboys, fresh off their 24-20 come-from-behind victory over the Detroit Lions in round one. In some ways, this matchup is one of strength vs. strength. The Packers are undefeated at home, the Cowboys are undefeated on the road. In other ways, the matchup is strength vs. weakness and weakness versus strength; like the league's best quarterback (hard to argue with 4,381 yards and 38 touchdowns versus only five picks) and #8 passing attack smacking its lips in anticipation of exploiting Dallas' #26 pass defense on one hand, and DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys' #2 rushing attack drooling at the prospect of repeatedly gashing Green Bay's #23 rushing defense.
In point of fact, the latter is the bigger vulnerability, because if the Cowboys can run the ball, they can keep Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines, limit his possessions, and therefore his ability to get his team a lead that would force them out of their running game. It would also make Green Bay more one-dimensional, even if passing is their strength, and enable Dallas pass rushers to pin their ears back and come after Rodgers - who, don't forget, has that nagging calf injury. As we saw in the regular season finale between the Packers and Lions at Lambeau, much like the second half of last season, how much the Packers' level of play drops when "Discount DAAAAAABLE-Check!" isn't in the lineup. Whereas with a strong running game established, Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo would be able to work play action opportunities to wideout Dez Bryant and tight end Jason Witten.
The conventional wisdom says that Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay's home field advantage will override any matchup disadvantages and send the Pack west next week. But that DeMarco Murray vs. #23 rushing defense number stands out to me like a big, fat nose zit on prom night. It's precisely the edge that the Cowboys can use to overcome the "Lambeau mystique" and pull the (slight) upset.
And then there's that "intangibles" factor to consider. Having closely watched the NFL for forty-two seasons, my "gut" has developed to where I recognize "teams of destiny" when I see them. I felt it about the Baltimore Ravens yesterday and I've got that same sinking feeling about the Dallas Cowboys today.
Of course, the Ravens blew a pair of two-touchdown leads and lost, so maybe the playoff parity gremlins aren't making the comeback it looked like they were. But then again, that Cowboy offensive line and running game are good enough that they don't need intangibles or destiny.
However, my numbers still say Green Bay, although it'll at least be closer than Vegas appears to believe, so.....
Dallas (+6.5)
Green Bay*
....I'm probably squandering that pick. But, what the heck, I was only 2-2 straight-up, and 1-3 vs. the spread, last weekend.v And I really, reeeeeeeeally don't want to have to sit in my recliner and watch Jerry Jones hoisting our trophy at the Toaster in three weeks.
See my comments about the Colts here. Suffice it to say, the only advantage Indy might have today is Andrew Luck over Peyton Manning, except for the likelihood that Luck will be a turnover machine trying to single handedly carry his team against the NFL's #3 defense and #9 pass defense. Linebacker Von Miller and defensive end DeMarco Ware will make Luck luckless, miserable, and have him well-acquainted with the turf at Mile High. Meanwhile, Peyton Manning won't have to carry the whole load himself, as the Broncos actually have a running game - not fantastic (#15), but running back C.J. Anderson came on down the stretch and gives the "Fivehead" an option he really hasn't had previously, and given his own shakiness in the last part of the regular season, not a moment too soon.
In summary, the only thing that might make the outcome look closer than it'll really be is another patented Andrew Luck comeback. But I wouldn't count on it.
Indianapolis
Denver* (-7)
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