TPA Going Down In Flames In The House

by JASmius



When last we visited this topic, both here and on Constitutional Radio, there was a rare split between America's Constitution Authority and the Poor Man's Rush Limbaugh, with Douglas V. Gibbs coming down against Trade Promotion fasttrack Authority and the Transpacific Partnership trade deal, and your humble pundit in favor of it.  That's not to say that Mr. Gibbs is some crazy, wild-eyed paranoiac protectionist and I'm the Monopoly Man (I wish); we're both free traders, and we both acknowledge that there's a great deal of good and a great deal of bad in this TPA legislation.  It's a tough call as to whether the promotion of global trade, and American jobs and prosperity that have been absent for almost seven years, is worth giving a despotic, power-mad POTUS even more power over the short term, or if the latter is too great a risk to take even when an economic defibrillation is so desperately needed.

But, if you'll recall, I concluded my comments nineteen days ago by reminding one and all that, "Having said all that, TPA will probably be DOA in the House. But we can always hope."

And, sure enough....:

Barack Obama’s push for a large-scale trade deal with the Pacific Rim is in serious jeopardy, as House Democratic opposition to his top legislative agenda is growing on Capitol Hill. …

Most pressing are concerns over TAA. The initiative is unpopular with Republicans, and aides in both parties estimate that only fifty to one hundred GOP lawmakers will vote for it. And with unions actively lobbying against the bill, a senior House Democratic aide said it will be “a major problem” to wrangle “significant House Democratic support” for the measure.

The so-called rule vote is also critical, and is in danger, according to sources. That measure would allow the House to proceed to the larger trade package. A vote of that nature is usually carried by the majority party, but in a sign of how close it is, Wisconsin Representative Ron Kind — a pro-trade Democrat — is urging his party to vote with the GOP.

Both the jobs assistance bill and the rule needs 218 votes to pass.

The uncertainty surrounding the TAA and fast track votes are becoming a serious problem for Obama. If TAA fails, the House will not take up Trade Promotion Authority, the key legislation that would give Obama fast-track authority to negotiate the sweeping Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. Under that scenario both sides would have to regroup and figure out a way forward — or else the twelve-nation trade deal could fall apart.

The tally in terms of House Members who've committed is 135-159, leaving the remaining eighty-three "yes" votes to somehow be whipped from the 141 fence-sitters on both sides of the aisle, most of them 'Pubbies.  With the public trending against TPA by a two to one margin, Republicans are either getting cold feet or making common cause with the growing anti-trade bloc on the Democrat side, making it increasingly unlikely that TPA is going anywhere other than an unmarked legislative grave, especially with the accompanying TAA "sweetener" that was supposed to bring Big Labor on board also going into a death spiral.

Again, if I were in the House, I would hold my nose and vote "yes".  Call it a vote of naive faith that The One will voluntarily relinquish power 589 days from now.  But for weal or for woe, my vote wouldn't be enough.

So relax, my crazy, wild-eyed paranoiac protectionist friends.  Unless there's some dramatic, last-second reversal, TPA is DOA.

Exit question: By the way, can I have a job?