Monday, September 07, 2015

Why Ben Carson Is Missing From The Polls

by JASmius

Specifically, the meaningless hypothetical general election polls measuring pretty much only one actual Republican (Jeb Bush) and one fake Republican (Donald Trump) against Hillary Clinton.  Now, of course, Dr. Carson isn't the only "hopeful" being excluded from the horserace surveys for a race that won't exist for almost a year yet.  So what makes the retired neurosurgeon's absence so odd?

How about the fact that Dr. Carson is tied with Trump in Iowa and rising everywhere else?  Even in a transitory sense, Gentle Ben has suddenly risen to the top candidate tier and would seem worthy of being included in hypothetical general election matchups.  At least for now.  So why isn't he?

My theory on that question has not changed in the past two months:

The findings suggest that Bush and Trump have the most name recognition, which is the only thing a "national poll" for a nominating contest that is State by State only can possibly indicate at this early point in the process. It also suggests that CNN is conducting the usual media psy-ops campaign to impose the Republican of their choice upon the GOP grassroots as its presidential nominee. They're using Trump to preempt all of Bush III's conservative challengers at the same time that they're vilifying Trump personally - in essence, The Donald is their designated "conservative," that they plan to spend the next nine months parodying while Jeb cruises on to Cleveland a year from now and his crushing defeat next November.

The only thing that's changed since then is that Trumpmania has run insanely wild (literally) while Jeb has deflated like every erection within a thousand miles of Mrs. Clinton.  He's third or fourth pretty much everywhere, and is down to 6% support in Iowa.  So why is Bush III still being touted as a top-tier candidate?  (1) Name recognition and (2) he's the "establishment frontrunner" in the Obamedia Narrative while Trump is the "conservative frontrunner".  For all media intents and purposes, there aren't any other candidates in the race.

I don't know if Dr. Carson's recent rise is a blip or has any staying power, but he's going to have to absolutely blow Trump's doors off everywhere and send The Donald free-fall spiraling down to Bushville in flames in order to crack that Bush vs. Trump media Narrative.

There is one survey that did include Dr. Carson in the general election fantasizing.  A Democrat pollster, but still, the results were....interesting:

Retired neurosurgeon and GOP presidential candidate Ben Carson is tied in a head-to-head matchup with Democrat presidential front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton and fares better against the former secretary of state than do other Republican presidential candidates, according to a survey released Thursday.

Mr. Carson and Mrs. Clinton were tied at 44% apiece, according to the survey from the Democrat-leaning firm Public Policy Polling, and Dr. Carson had an eight-point, 43%-35% advantage over Mrs. Clinton among independents.

As I say, it doesn't mean much.  I seem to recall Herman Cain's entrance into the 2012 GOP primaries a little less than four years ago and his posting a 45%-43% advantage over Barack Obama in an imaginary general election matchup.  But he was just the latest "flavor of the month" and quickly faded.

Will Dr. Carson?  If it takes a political neophyte who isn't Donald Trump to stop Trump, we'd bloody well hope and pray not.

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