Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Middle East Primed For All-Out Sunni-Shiite War

by JASmius

The indicator being Saudi Arabia's announcement of its own "grand alliance to fight terrorism":

Saudi Arabia said Tuesday that thirty-four nations have agreed to form a new “Islamic military alliance” to fight terrorism.

The announcement published by the state-run Saudi Press Agency said the coalition is being established because terrorism “should be fought by all means and collaboration should be made to eliminate it.” …

The new counterterrorism coalition includes nations with large and established armies such as Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt as well as war-torn countries with embattled militaries such as Libya and Yemen. African nations that have suffered [jihadist] attacks such as Mali, Chad, Somalia and Nigeria are also members.

Saudi Arabia’s regional rival, Shiite Iran, is not part of the coalition. Saudi Arabia and Iran support opposite sides in the wars raging in Syria and Yemen. Saudi Arabia is currently leading a military intervention in Yemen against Shiite Houthi rebels and is part of the U.S.-led coalition bombing the Sunni ISIS in Iraq and Syria. [emphasis added]

In name only, that is, as the Saudis for all intents and purposes quit O's phony-baloney "coalition" to concentrate on liberating Yemen from Iran's Houthi proxies.  So, in effect, this Saudi-led "Islamic military alliance to fight terrorism" will not be fighting the largest and most powerful jihadist quasi-state on the planet - ISIS - but will be engaging in all-out war with the Shiite Islamic Empire of Iran, gambling that they won't have deployed nuclear weapons yet but soon will.  Belated preemption, as it were.  Which also helps explain why neither of the mullahs twin vassals, Iraq and Syria, are part of the Saudi alliance either.

As with most multi-state alliances, the vast majority of its members are symbolic, not serious.  Only the Saudis, Pakistanis, Turks, and Egyptians will contribute any significant military resources, and even they aren't necessarily all on the same page, as the Paks will never take their primary focus off of India.  The leaves the Turks facing Syria and on Tehran's northwestern flank, and the Saudis to their southwest and across the Persian Gulf.  Oh, it may start off in Yemen, but the logical extrapolated conclusion of that process will - indeed, cannot help but be - a lot more direct.

This also brings the Russians into the equation, since they're allied with Iran, Syria, and Iraq, committed to preserving the Assad regime in Damascus, have large military forces deployed in the region, and are already in a low-level war with Turkey, and by extention NATO, which means, technically, with the U.S.

The rest of the world has been left to its own devices, and it is doing what comes naturally in the absence of U.S. power and leadership: Events continue to spin out of control, the world, already in flames, hurtles toward global conflagration, and the ruler of the helpless America reduced to the level of the rest of the world sits back, dogs on Old Resolute, crosses his arms, rubs his chin, and nods his head in satisfaction over a "fundamental transformation" job well done.

Welcome to the wages of twenty-first century isolationism.  Unlike Klingon revenge, this will be a dish served "hot".

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