Thursday, April 21, 2016

Post-New York Primary Scoreboard

by JASmius

Though it is abundantly clear by now and has been for a very long time that Trumplicans aren't interested in objective polling and delegate numbers but only in blind faith and whatever bovine scatology that foghorns out of their leader's piehole, I will continue to report them, if only for posterity and to be able to provide them with the substance they eschew should the GOP nomination race turn out for the worse.

I'll even throw in the Dem numbers, just for kicks.  Let's start with theirs, as a matter of fact.

POPULAR VOTE: Rodham 57.4%, Sanders 42.6%

EARNED DELEGATES: Rodham 1,428, Sanders 1,151

TOTAL DELEGATES: Rodham 1,930, Sanders 1,189

"MAGIC NUMBER": 452 (27.5% of remaining attainable total delegates)

"MAGIC NUMBER" MINUS SUPERDUPERDELEGATES: 598 (40.6% of remaining attainable earned delegates)

Suffice it to say, Weekend Bernie is cooked, Hillary's superduperdelegates are running up the score rather than barely putting her over the top, and consequently the chances of "Days of Rage" chaos at more than one of the major party conventions are now remote.  Which is too bad, because the City of Brotherly Love hasn't had a mass brawl with cheese graters and stop signs and fire chairs since ECW folded fifteen years ago.

It leaves me to wonder as well how the contest I long predicted between Mrs. Clinton and Senator Elizabeth Warren might have turned out.  Which is to say that given that this was the only real difference between the two northeast communist senators, how much did Weekend Bernie's testicles handicap him?

And now, the numbers Trumpers will continue to ignore unless and until they fully say what they want to see.....

POPULAR VOTE: Trump 40.1%, Cruz 29.4%, Rubio 15.9%, Kasich 14.6%

DELEGATES: Trump 845, Cruz 559, Rubio 171, Kasich 148

That's 49.0% of the delegates off of 40.1% of the popular vote, for those not keeping score at home, or BLATANTLY "UNFAIR" Trump's favor.  Which means, by rights, he owes Kasich 104 delegates and Cruz and Rubio the other 49.  I'm guessing they won't be forthcoming.

"MAGIC NUMBER": 392 (52.3% of remaining attainable delegates)

Since the GOP race became (essentially) mano-e-mano after Marco Rubio "suspended his campaign" on March 16th, Donald Trump has won....45.9% of the allotted first-ballot delegates.

"MAGIC MARGIN" (The minimum delegate lead Trump needs over Cruz to ultimately go over the top versus Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich combined): 321.

Trump's current delegate lead over Cruz stands at 286.

There's still a third of the nomination race left to go, Trumpets.  I'd advise pacing yourselves for the rage fits to come.

UPDATE: Bandwagon effect?

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