What to Expect on Super Tuesday

By Douglas V. Gibbs

The thing I have learned most about politics is that usually conventional wisdom has no idea what it is talking about, and the liberal media is doing whatever it can to influence the vote.  Even the polls can't be trusted. I was reading about one poll where they said they had an accurate depiction of what was coming, but despite Gallup's claim the country is mostly conservative, the sample of republicans in this poll was 27%. . . and since the samples were from population centers (where the more liberal tends to reside), I am willing to bet those republicans were mainly moderate, establishment loving, republicans. . . not exactly members of the conservative majority.

That said, the thing you can most expect in today's ten-state primary rush that places a third of the total delegates up for grabs is the "unexpected."

One thing is for sure.  The only way for this thing to come out good is for the winner to be a definite contrast to Obama's socialist ideals.  Romney, for many, is not a big enough contrast, with his moderate views, his flip-flops he performed over the years to seem more conservative, and his unwavering support for his Obamacare junior, Romneycare in Massachusetts.

To fix this country we have to destroy what is destroying it, and someone that is not a stark contrast to Obama might not do that.  Which leaves us with the other three candidates.

Ron Paul is the candidate that understands the Constitution the most, until it gets to his national security angle, which he takes beyond what was intended.  Ron Paul fans say to me, "Is that the only thing that bothers you about him?"  Folks, Paul's national security position is dangerous.  What good is it if he is right all of the time, aside from national security issues, if there is no country remaining because we failed to defend ourselves? I will say this, though. Paul would make a great Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Newt Gingrich articulates conservatism real well, but can also be very unpredictable. I like him, but I don't know if he is what is best for this country, and I am not sure I can trust him.

Then there is Rick Santorum. The main argument against him is that he's too conservative. . .

Fine with me.

One thing is for sure. We have learned with Dole and McCain that "Republicans in Name Only" (a.k.a. RINOs) don't get it, and can't win.  The problem is, the establishment types think that a strong conservative like Santorum can't win, and they use 1964 as an example.

In 1964 Conservatives got their candidate in Barry Goldwater.  Goldwater lost in the General Election. Lyndon B. Johnson won with 61 percent of the vote, the largest popular vote percentage in modern history, according to the liberal writers.  The establishment blames the big loss on Goldwater's conservatism, while forgetting all about Reagan's big wins (where he also campaigned on conservatism), and forgetting that Johnson's win was inevitable, regardless of who ran against him. He got the sympathy vote. He was assassinated Kennedy's VP, and people felt he had not had the chance to carry out his duties of president in the short time in office, and gave him the vote because he "deserved a chance."

The Republicans think we need a centrist to lead the country, and that conservatives scare away the independents - which is a lot of poppycock, and I think the voters realize this.

With Super Tuesday upon us, it is time to find out if the RINO, the unpredictable former Speaker of the House, the crazy one, or the Conservative is what America wants to fight Obama with.

419 delegates are at stake.  Primaries in Ohio, Georgia, Massachusetts, Vermont, Virginia, Oklahoma and Tennessee plus caucuses in Idaho, North Dakota and Alaska make today the most important day of the primary season. A candidacy could be defined today. The lead could change hands, or Romney will come out of this as the heir everyone has been saying he is.

Ohio, a much needed State, has been leaning toward Santorum.  Georgia is looking to go to hometown boy Gingrich.  Oklahoma's conservative streak leans Santorum.  Idaho seems split between Paul and Santorum, with Gingrich in close proximity. Romney has a pretty good hold in the rest of the States, and coming off of his four in a row wins, finalized by a huge victory in Washington State, a big win here today could catapult Romney into the winner's circle (or at least to the edge of it).

The Associated Press has Romney leading the whole race with 203 delegates, while Santorum has 92, Gingrich 33 and Paul 25. It takes 1,144 to win the nomination at the convention in Tampa, Florida coming this Summer.  Big wins here may all but end it.

Romney's challengers have challenges beyond just being able to beat Romney, too.  In Ohio, even if Santorum won the State completely, he would not be able to get all of the delegates. Santorum failed to file any delegates in three of the state's 16 congressional districts. That means he has forfeited any chance at nine of the 63 at stake.

Another challenge has emerged in Virginia, where Santorum and Gingrich failed to qualify for the Virginia primary ballot, and Romney appears to be in line to capture all 46 delegates there.

The former Massachusetts governor should win Massachusetts no problem, also, just because that is his home turf in the sense of the fact that his executive experience comes from that State.  That's another 38 delegates.  So, even if the others hammered Romney in the other States, none of them can grab a great big lead from Romney.  Mitt, however, with wins in Vermont, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Idaho, North Dakota and Alaska, or a major combination thereof, could just about put this whole thing away.

In short, Romney's competition needs to pull off something special to keep this thing going.

That said, the main thing is to keep Romney from reaching 1,144 by the end, because no matter how much he has been winning, if Romney doesn't win a majority, all of this may wind up in the hands of the wheelers and dealers as the GOP heads into a brokered convention.

By the end of tonight, the coming scenario will be more plain.

One thing is for sure. . . it is going to be interesting.

By the way, a brokered convention is nothing to be afraid of. One thing it would do is keep Obama from knowing who his opponent will be, giving him much less time to fight against his opponent.

-- Political Pistachio Conservative News and Commentary

The Useless NBC/WSJ Poll - Hot Air