2012 Election Map Prediction - Political Pistachio

Romney Landslide. . .

This Electoral Map is based on my research of the polls, taking into consideration the bias that includes an over-sampling of democrats, and an under-sampling of independents, and of local polls in each State that often are closer to reality than the national polls.  Though I believe the polls are manipulated and skewed, they are an important tool to work with, along with census information, and trends.  Below, I provide information on some of the States that will be very close:

Oregon - George W. Bush almost won Oregon in 2000 and 2004.  Most surveys have Obama up only by a few percentage points in Oregon. In fact, in 2000, Gore won Oregon by less than a percentage point.  The Oregonian newspaper reports that though Obama still holds a five percent lead in Oregon according to their polls (some polls show a 4% lead for Obama), undecided voters lean towards Romney.  It may be by only a few thousand votes, but I think Oregon will go to Romney. Benghazi may have been the final straw that pushes Romney into the win column in that Left Coast state.

Wisconsin - Rasumussen Reports has the race at a dead even 49%-49%.  The popularity of Republican Governor Scott Walker, and the fact that Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan is Romney's running mate, pushes Wisconsin into the GOP column.  CBS News reports that Obama, over the last two weeks, has lost an eleven point lead in Wisconsin, and both the Gallup Poll, and CBS News Poll, has the race at a dead heat.

Minnesota - The Romney Campaign believes Minnesota is in play, and has shown that by bringing a heavy ad campaign to the State.  ABC News reports that the Romney Campaign has bought $30,000 worth of ads in Minneapolis-St. Paul.  The most recent polling data has Obama ahead in the State by only 2-4 points.  Though Minnesota is traditionally a Democrat-leaning State, and no Republican has won the State since Nixon in 1972, George W. Bush came within 2.4 percentage points of winning there in 2000 and within 3.5 points of taking it in 2004.  Former Minnesota Governor Pawlenty throwing his support behind Romney has helped the campaign.  The primary key for me deciding that Minnesota will go to Romney is not the fact that everything is close, however, but the fact that in 2010 the GOP won control of both houses of the State Legislature and unseated the state's longest-serving Democratic congressman, Jim Oberstar.  The Tea Party wave that caused the 2010 landslide is still in place, and if anything, the people are even more angry with Obama and the Democrats. The fervor that changed Minnesota in St. Paul will now spill over into the presidential election.

Michigan - Due to the failure of liberal policies in Michigan the State lost a seat in the House of Representatives as a result of the mass exodus from the State.  Detroit is a shell of its prior self.  The rural areas have gained strength in voting power, and as a result, Michigan is a tight race for the presidency, and in fact is now dead even.  Like in Minnesota, Michigan saw a GOP win in 2010, including the election of Republican Rick Snyder as governor.  That rejection of the Democrats will carry into 2012.

Ohio - The Buckeye State is a key State each election.  Ohio historically picks the President. Since 1944 Ohio has sided with the losing candidate only once. Like Michigan, Ohio has been losing population, with the declines primarily affecting the cities. Cleveland, Cincinnati, Toledo, Youngstown, Dayton and Akron all suffered huge population declines from 2000 to 2010.  The mass exodus has reduced the population in the nearby suburbs, as well, giving Ohio a more rural outlook.  Ohio lost two congressional seats as a result of the 2010 census.  Polls currently have Ohio as a tie between Romney and Obama.  Representative Jim Jordan has proclaimed Ohio is a win for Romney - Obama's record is a record of failure, and Ohioans recognize that.  Some polls even have Ohio leaning towards Romney now.

Maine - A deeply blue State, Mitt Romney has little chance of winning the entire State of Maine. The northeastern State, however, is one of two States that splits its electoral college vote by congressional district.  According to the polls, Mitt Romney is leading President Obama in the rural northern and western district, raising the possibility of the GOP nominee winning an electoral vote from Maine.  Though Obama is leading statewide 48% to 44%, in Maine's second congressional district, Romney actually tops Obama 49% to 44%.

-- Political Pistachio Conservative News and Commentary