Election's Over, Unemployment Rate on the Rise

By Douglas V. Gibbs

Now that the election is over, Gallup reports the adjusted unemployment rate is over 8% again, at 8.3%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is telling us the rate is at 7.7%, a number that would be the lowest since 2008.

The U-6 still has the rate well into the double digits, at 14.7%, and many number crunchers will even tell you the rate is closer to 20% than the government is willing to admit.

The number of jobs the government claims were added (and note that government jobs are on the rise, while the private sector suffers) in November are at about 146,000, which is the lowest since 2008.

Yet, they are telling us the rate has dropped to 7.7%.

The report is based on a survey of households and employers, using techniques that can't possibly accurately depict the current jobless rate in the United States.

We also have to remember the 7.7% rate the government publicizes does not take into account those whose unemployment benefits have run out, those who have given up seeking work, those who are underemployed, and those small business owners whose entrepreneurial endeavors have closed their doors.

Then there is the always fun “seasonal adjustments,” which is a guess based on what they have seen in the past this time of year.

The answer is only as good as the data imputed into the system.  And guess what?  The data input can be easily manipulated.

So what happens to the rate when the adjustments aren't there, and you take into consideration the seasonal hiring which is mostly only temporary?

The rate jumps upward.

Another group of people not counted are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want to work, are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past twelve months. These people are your discouraged workers, not currently looking for work, but are willing to work.

Some folks are in between homes, or haven't hooked up their phone or email.  These folks aren't being counted either.  There is no way to count all of the unemployed in America, and the numbers not counted could be staggering.

CNN calls these folks "The 86 million invisible unemployed.”

In the end, it is obvious that the numbers don't add up, and the true jobless rate in the U.S. is far higher than 7.7%.

-- Political Pistachio Conservative News and Commentary

U.S. Adjusted Unemployment Shoots Back Up - Gallup

Employment Situation Summary - Bureau of Labor Statistics

The 86 million invisible unemployed - CNN