Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Russia, and the Mounting Ukraine and Crimea Turmoil

By Douglas V. Gibbs

The world is watching Vladimir Putin, as he plays chicken with the rest of the world.  For some folks that pay attention to history, the scenario seems all too familiar.  Bit by bit, piece by piece, the tyrant pushes the envelope, picking this up, and that up, until finally, after getting away with pretty much anything he wants to do, the tyrant decides to make a larger move, a more visible move, one that even puts the military forces of nations being led by pacifists into action.

TIME reports that following the fatal shooting of a Ukrainian officer in the Crimean capital of Simferopol, which nearly pulled into battle Russian and Ukrainian forces, hundreds of Crimean forces stormed a Ukrainian naval base in the port of Sevastopol, and raised the Russian flag.  This follows the recent vote by Crimea to join Russia, and following the beginning of the process of annexation of Crimea into Russia. A CNN report tells us that Ukrainian leaders argue that Crimea is still a part of Ukraine.

Also, according to CNN, as a result of Putin's military moves and the annexation of Crimea, his approval rating in Russia is climbing.  Currently, he is at 72% approval.  A former Kremlin adviser states that a part of the reason Putin is doing what he is doing is that he doesn't fear the threats of sanctions.  The commentator also says in his CNN article, that Putin has gone too far to turn back, now, sanctions, or no sanctions.

The New York Times reports that NATO was organized to be a counterweight to Russia, and now the role of the organization is in the spotlight.  The West has been reluctant to use military force, but if Russia pushes into eastern Ukraine, the allies may have no choice but to engage.  As collectivists, the Western leaders may lean towards pacifism, but as President Obama put it, “we have a solemn commitment to our collective defense, and we will uphold that commitment.” - which means when the rubber hits the road, they may have no choice but to send in a military response.  Still, most of the leaders continue to reaffirm that they are not looking for a military response, and that they believe negotiations and sanctions can do the job.  History, specifically regarding Hitler, Stalin, Roosevelt, and Neville Chamberlain says otherwise.

Though the luke-warm leftists of The West are trying to assure everyone that a military response is not one that they seek, the Associated Press says that Vice President Joe Biden has warned that the United States will respond to any aggression against NATO allies.  Biden also addressed Baltic states like Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia (and including Poland), assuring them support by The West, and compensation for any of those countries hurt by sanctions against Russia, according to First Post.

Following Crimea's vote to fall under Russia's umbrella, The Globe and Mail reports that Crimean Prime Minister Sergei Aksynov states Ukrainian ministers will not be allowed into the region. “They are not wanted in Crimea. Nobody will let them into Crimea, they will be sent back,” Aksyonov said after Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk ordered the acting defense minister and first deputy prime minister to fly to Crimea to “resolve the situation” in the region now controlled by Russian forces.

CNN commentator Peter Morici writes that the best way to curb Russia's aggression is energy independence.  There are insufficient NATO forces available to deal with Putin, and economic sanctions are not only not working, but are a joke to the Russian leadership.  However, Russia has become dependent on Western markets to drive its economy, and though reducing Europe's use of Russian Oil cannot be done overnight, in the long run, with shale deposits in the United States, France, and Germany, cutting off dependency on Russian oil can be done, and will, in the long run, curb Russia's aggression by economically slowing down the country.

NPR sees one of three things happening through this scenario, recognizing that Putin has gone too far to pull back.  1. Russia will keep advancing.  2. Russia will hold Crimea and put pressure on Ukraine.  or 3. Russia could make limited concessions. . .  but even the most liberal experts see that as very unlikely.

Market Watch reports that Hillary Clinton has gone so far as to compare Russian President Vladimir Putin to Adolf Hitler.  According to Clinton, Putin is using the same argument in his Crimea push — the need to defend Russian nationals — as Hitler used in the 1930s when he claimed defense of ethnic Germans to justify his annexation of parts of Czechoslovakia and Poland.  

The New York Times warns the Crimeans to be careful what they wish for.  Five and a half years ago the tiny mountainous enclave of South Ossetia were similarly ecstatic.

On the day in 2008 when Russia formally recognized the enclave as independent of Georgia, young men hung out of their car windows, waving Russian flags and spraying pedestrians with Champagne. Officials daydreamed about building an economy based on tourism, like that of Monaco or Andorra.

That has not happened. These days South Ossetia’s economy is entirely dependent on budgetary funds from Russia. Unemployment is high, and so are prices, since goods must now be shuttled in through the tunnel, long and thin like a drinking straw, that cuts through the Caucasus ridge from Russia.

Its political system is controlled by elites loyal to Moscow, suddenly wealthy enough to drive glossy black cars, though many roads are pitted or unpaved. Dozens of homes damaged in the 2008 war with Georgia have never been repaired.

-- Political Pistachio Conservative News and Commentary

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