Wednesday, March 05, 2014

WAR! -- Is Russia Setting the Stage for the Next World War?

By Douglas V. Gibbs

World War I began over a conflict between Austria-Hungary and Serbia, nearby and to the southwest of Ukraine.  World War II began when Germany invaded Poland, nearby and to the northwest of Ukraine.  Now, it may be Ukraine's turn, as she seeks revolution, and freedom, and Russia works to wrestle her into a new Soviet Union.  Like Obama, in World War I Woodrow Wilson was doing whatever he could to keep the peace, and to keep the United States out of the war.  This time, if things explode, Obama may not have any option.  According to the Ukraine, we made a promise to protect them, and it is now that they want us to live up to the conditions of that agreement.

The agreement to defend Ukraine was made at a time when the United States was able, and willing, to protect the country on the edge of the Russian sphere of influence.  The problem is that Ukraine is full of Russian language speakers, and that opens the door for Vladimir Putin to claim he is only protecting his people.  If the Obama administration was willing to approve the Keystone Pipeline, and work to ramp up domestic oil drilling, it would drop the price of oil, and put Russia's oil production and exporting into a pinch.  Also, right now would be a great time to pump money and equipment into our military.  This would send a message that we are strong, and willing (and able) to defend the Ukraine if necessary.  These two actions would resolve the situation without a single shot ever needing to be fired.  Instead, because the liberal agenda is more important to them than U.S. interests, Obama has refused to allow the free market to take off on domestic drilling, and (as per Defense Secretary Hagel's recent remarks about reducing our military) they are doing whatever they can to weaken us to levels not seen since before World War II.

Ukrainian officials are feeling dissed. Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Nations has pointed out that the United States, and other key members of the United Nations, said they would help Ukraine militarily if the nation fell under invasion by anyone.

Russian forces are in Ukraine, representing “an act of aggression against the state of Ukraine … posing a serious threat to our sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Unfortunately, since we are approaching this from a position of weakness, thanks to the ignorance of Obama and the democrats on foreign policy, to use our military would be disastrous, and is a very bad idea.  Once again, we wouldn't even be in this pickle if we were acting from a position of strength, influencing the markets with our own strong domestic activities, and boasting a powerful military force ready to strike whenever, and wherever, needed.

If you carry a big stick, you will probably never have to swing it - because nobody wants you to have to.  If you carry a tiny stick, you will be beaten with clubs.

My fear is, like Woodrow Wilson who sidestepped until there was no option but war, Obama will continue to play his little game, thinking it matters to Putin what he says, until finally Putin will push far enough where Obama, and any American allies willing to participate, will take action in order to adhere to the 1994 treaty signed by fellow democrat, President Bill Clinton.  The agreement was a promise to protect Ukraine, militarily if necessary, in exchange for the denuclearization of the former Soviet republic.

In other words, the United States and the United Kingdom will be breaking the treaty if they don't send in troops in response to a Russian invasion.

So far, Russia has taken the Crimean Penninsula, and 2,000 Russian troops are on the move across the Black Sea towards Russian bases in, and near, Ukraine.  Russian forces have also allegedly taken control of two airports, in Simferopol and Sevastopol.

Barack Obama is good at throwing around threats of sanctions, or making veiled threats without answering the question, "Or else what?"  He has warned Russia, and Putin is laughing at him.

It's a game of chicken, and the President of the United States has no spine, nor experience.  The leftists of the United States, and Europe, can complain and point threatening fingers all they want, but Putin knows who, and what, he is dealing with, and has no fear of anything coming of it.

To prove he is not worried, and he is willing to do as he wants, Vladimir Putin authorized for Russia to test-fire an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) from Astrakhan to Kazakhstan.  The notification for firing the missile pre-dated the current Crimean and Ukrainian crises, but the decision to fire the missile east of the Ukrainian border was not delayed, or scratched, as tensions deepen.  As America, and Europe, weakens their defenses in the "modern world," Putin has been working to strengthen Russia's nuclear arsenal, with Putin emphasizing he believes they must maintain a strong nuclear deterrent, in part because of an anti-missile shield the United States is building (but has been essentially abandoning) in Europe which Moscow says could undermine its security.

Among President Obama's threats against Russia is economic sanctions.  Vladimir Putin countered with a response I don't believe the democrats expected, nor have an answer to.  If sanctions are agreed upon against Russia, Moscow will simply eliminate any and all economic dependence on the United States, a move the Kremlin says would crash the American financial system - which is kind of a twist on what President Ronald Reagan did to weaken, and ultimately defeat, the Soviet Union, during the eighties.

"We would find a way not just to reduce our dependency on the United States to zero but to emerge from those sanctions with great benefits for ourselves," said Kremlin economic aide Sergei Glazyev.

The move by Russia would include the country stopping the use of American dollars for international transactions, creating her own payment system using trade and economic relations with partners in the East and South.

Russian firms and banks would also not return loans from American financial institutions, Glazyev said.

"An attempt to announce sanctions would end in a crash for the financial system of the United States, which would cause the end of the domination of the United States in the global financial system," he added.

In short, the American dollar would cease to be the reserve currency, and the liberal left's practice of printing fiat money would not only have to stop, but the dollar would devalue rapidly in a way similar to the collapse of the Deutsche mark during the Wiemar Republic in Germany.

Got a wheel-barrow for all that cash it'll take to buy a loaf of bread?

Sanctions against Russia, with a Russian response as threatened, or not, would place Russia and Europe into financial dire straights, and weaken the American economy that is already floundering under the mismanagement of liberal left democrats.  The West knows this, and sanctions have been ruled out.  Putin holds all of the cards, and he knows it.  Response by Europe and the U.S. would be disastrous, which gives Russia free rein to do as he pleases.  This leaves the nations that are supposed to be supporting Ukraine with only one option remaining, in their little minds.

WAR!

Turkey is already in preparation-mode. The Turkish Air Force scrambled eight F-16 fighter jets after a Russian surveillance plane flew parallel along its Black Sea coast.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is mobilizing troops, and is prepared for war.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated he has a right to invade the former Soviet republic, and the pro-Western leaders in Ukraine are saying that Putin's words were more than a mere threat.  They were a declaration of war.

Russian forces have already seized Crimea, surrounding several small Ukrainian military outposts there and demanding the Ukrainian troops disarm.  The strategic peninsula was taken without a shot being fired.

Pro-Russian, and Anti-Russian demonstrations have emerged in Ukraine.  The Ukraine's small and under-equipped military is no match for Russia's superpower might, but the Ukrainian forces have prepared to defend against any additional Russian aggression anyway.

Naively, and ignorantly, U.S. Secretary of Defense John Kerry pleaded, "You just don't, in the 21st century, behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on a completely trumped-up pretext," on the CBS program "Face the Nation".

Tyrants don't care what century it is.  Bad guys exist, and this is the result of weak policies by the liberal left idiots in The West.  The democrats, and the international leftists, caused this with their weak policies, and unwillingness to recognize that the bad guys don't respond to diplomacy and "can't we all just get along" pleas.  This is a direct result of the weakening of American foreign relations, the reduction of American presence worldwide, and the weakening of our economic and military standards and numbers.  If a Ronald Reagan type was in office, with a priority on a strong national defense, and an emphasis on domestic production and manufacturing (including domestic oil) this crisis would not be happening.  Tyrants, including people like Putin, take advantage of weakness, and move when they think they can do so without any retaliation, and Putin will push this as far as he can, because he doesn't think the leftists of the West will respond in kind.  The new Soviet Union is being assembled, and eventually the West, unfortunately, will have only two choices.  Sit idly by as it happens, or wage war on Russia.  Putin is setting the stage for a new world war, and if the democrats decide to bite, economic difficulties like we are seeing right now will be the least of our worries.






End of American Dominance - Washington Free Beacon

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