Iowa tips "red," Louisiana lunges the same direction, Kentucky widens, Arkansas narrows.
(Incumbents in bold; all polling via Rasmussen Reports)
SAFE REPUBLICAN
ALABAMA: Jeff Sessions (R) - unopposed
IDAHO: James Risch (R) 54%, Nels Mitchell (D) 29%
LOUISIANA: Bill Cassidy/Rob Maness (R) 52%, Mary Landrieu (D) 41% (GOP pickup)
MAINE: Susan Collins (R) 59%, Shenna Bellows (D) 31%
MISSISSIPPI: Thad Cochran (R) 48%, Travis Childers (D) 31%
MONTANA: Steve Daines (R) 55%, Amanda Curtis (D) 35% (GOP pickup)
NEBRASKA: Ben Sasse (R) 51%, David Domina (D) 34%
OKLAHOMA: James Inhofe (R) 58%, Matt Silverstein (D) 27%
SOUTH CAROLINA: Lindsey Graham (R) 49%, Brad Hutto (D) 30%
SOUTH DAKOTA: Mike Rounds (R) 44%, Rick Weiland (D) 29%, Larry Pressler (RINO) 18% (GOP pickup)
TEXAS: John Cornyn (R) 50%, David Alameel (D) 29%
TENNESSEE: Lamar Alexander (R) 47%, Gordon Ball (D) 32%
WEST VIRGINIA: Shelly Moore Capito (R) 50%, Natalie Tennant (D) 39% (GOP pickup)
WYOMING: Mike Enzi (R) 63%, Charlie Hardy (D) 27%
SOLID REPUBLICAN
ALASKA: Dan Sullivan (R) 48%, Mark Begich (D) 43% (GOP pickup)
ARKANSAS: Tom Cotton (R) 47%, Mark Pryor (D) 44% (GOP pickup)
KENTUCKY: Mitch McConnell (R) 52%, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 44%
LEANING REPUBLICAN
GEORGIA: David Perdue (R) 46%, Michelle Nunn (D) 42%
IOWA: Joni Ernst (R) 48%, Bruce Braley (D) 43% (GOP pickup)
LEANING DEMOCRAT
COLORADO: Mark Udall (D) 44%, Cory Gardner (R) 42%
MICHIGAN: Gary Peters (D) 41%, Terri Lynn Land (R) 39%
NORTH CAROLINA: Kay Hagen (D) 48%, Tom Tillis (R) 46%
SOLID DEMOCRAT
KANSAS: Greg Orman ("Independent") 45%, Pat Roberts (R) 40% (Dem pickup)
MINNESOTA: Al Franken (D) 50%, Mike McFadden (R) 42%
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 48%, Scott Brown (R) 42%
SAFE DEMOCRAT
DELAWARE: Chris Coons (D) 49%, Kevin Wade (R) 34%
HAWAII: Brian Schatz (D) 60%, Cam Cavasso (R) 28%
ILLINOIS: Ali Dickbar al-Durbini (D) 51%, Jim Oberweis (R) 37%
MASSACHUSETTS: Ed Markey (D) 49%, Brian Herr (R) 31%
NEW JERSEY: Corey Booker (D) 48%, Jeff Bell (R) 35%
NEW MEXICO: Tom Udall (D) 52%, Allen Weh (R) 39%
OREGON: Jeff Merkley (D) 48%, Monica Wehby (R) 35%
RHODE ISLAND: Jack Reed (D) 61%, Mark Zaccaria (R) 26%
VIRGINIA: Mark Warner (D) 53%, Ed Gillespie (R) 36%
HIGH: GOP picks up Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alaska, Louisiana, Iowa, Arkansas, Colorado, Michigan, and North Carolina, but loses Kansas, for a net gain of nine seats and a 54-46 majority in the next U.S. Senate.
MEDIAN: GOP picks up Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alaska, Louisiana and Iowa, but loses Kansas, for a gain of six seats and a 51-49 majority in the next U.S. Senate.
LOW: GOP picks up Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, but the Democrats pick up Georgia and Kansas, for a net GOP gain of four seats, leaving the Democrats to retain a 51-49 majority in the next U.S. Senate.
Democrat Bruce Braley's big mouth overcomes a deluge of hit ads against Republican Joni Ernst, edging her off the schnied and out to a three point lead in Iowa. Alison Lundergan Grimes's similar "macaca-ism" gives Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell some breathing room in Kentucky. Louisiana Donk incumbent Mary Landrieu is stuck at 41%, which doesn't bode well for her chances in the inevitable runoff, despite how "miraculously" she seems to do in them. But Democrat Mark Pryor picks up some ground against Republican Congressman and challenger Tom Cotton in Arkansas. So Iowa moves to "leaning Republican" and (probably against my cynical better judgment) Louisiana, for now at least, goes in the "safe Republican" column, bringing the worst-case "floor" for the GOP to a net four-seat gain.
Just a fortnight and change to go - can you believe it? I can remember all the way back to when a midterm election would be monopolizing the headlines. Now it seems to be an afterthought - which, now that I think about it, seems to indicate how "red" a night November 4th is shaping up to be.
No comments:
Post a Comment