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Sunday, November 23, 2014

Israel Cornered Into War Against Iran

By Douglas V. Gibbs

Israel is surrounded by the enemy, existing against all odds, and winning wars against their Islamic foes when conventional wisdom has determined the Muslims should have already pushed the tiny Jewish nation into the sea.  As America's greatest ally, under President Obama, Israel has gotten no support from the West.  Now, the leadership of Israel has proclaimed that Israel may be in a position where the Middle Eastern nation has been cornered into war with Iran.

The United States has been trying to work out a deal with Iran, as American forces battle ISIS in Syria and Iraq.  Meanwhile, Palestinians have pounded Israel from the south at Gaza, and Muslim terrorists have killed Israeli civilians in Jerusalem.  Israel, surrounded by the enemy, feels the need to take action, especially now that a nuclear Iran has figured out how to work out a deal with the West that will allow the Islamic powerhouse to keep its nuclear capabilities.

Current proposals in the agreement with Iran has Israel prepared to take action.  With a stark warning, Israel has indicated that the provisions of the agreement between global powers and Iran guarantee the perpetuation of a crisis, backing Israel into a corner from which military force against Iran provides the only logical exit.

The agreement says that Iran must restrict its nuclear program for roughly ten years and cap its ability to produce fissile material for a weapon during that time to a minimum nine-month additional period, from the current three months.  The agreement would require Russia to convert Iran's current uranium stockpile into fuel rods for peaceful use ([sarcasm on] because, as everyone knows, we can trust Russia [sarcasm off]).  The proposal would also include an inspection regime that would attempt to follow the program's entire supply chain, from the mining of raw material to the syphoning of that material to various nuclear facilities across Iran.

Israel's leaders believe the best of a worst-case scenario, should that deal be reached, is for inspections to go perfectly and for Iran to choose to abide by the deal for the entire decade-long period.

But, we know that bad guys don't follow the rules, and that, as an Israeli official put it, "our intelligence agencies are not perfect."  The Israeli official added, "We did not know for years about Natanz and Qom. And inspection regimes are certainly not perfect. They weren't in the case in North Korea, and it isn't the case now – Iran's been giving the IAEA the run around for years about its past activities."

"What's going to happen with that?" the official continued. "Are they going to sweep that under the rug if there's a deal?"

Reports also reveal that the group of nations that is working on this deal with Iran, the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China and Germany – are willing to stop short of demanding full disclosure of any secret weapon work by Tehran.

In addition to all of that, the new agreement also removes the requirement for Iran to dismantle her nuclear infrastructure.

"Iran's not being asked to dismantle the nuclear infrastructure," the Israeli official said, having seen the proposal before the weekend. "Right now what they're talking about is something very different. They're talking about Ayatollah Khamenei allowing the P5+1 to save face."

"It's like the chemical weapons deal in Syria," the official said. "They didn't just say: Here, let's get rid of the stockpile and the weapons, but we will leave all the plants and assembly lines."

"You've not dismantled the infrastructure, you've basically tried to put limits that you think are going to be monitored by inspectors and intelligence," said the official, "and then after this period of time, Iran is basically free to do whatever it wants."

Israel knows its enemies, and knows that deception and lies are always a part of how Islamic countries negotiate.  Iran cannot be trusted, and the agreement leaves too many opportunities for Iran to expand the country's nuclear program.

The treatment of Iran as any other signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty –189 countries are members, including Iran – would allow Tehran to ultimately acquire "an industrial-sized capability," the Israelis say. "The breakout times [to a nuclear weapon] will be effectively zero."

"You've not only created a deal that leaves Iran as a threshold nuclear power today, because they have the capability to break out quickly if they wanted to," the Israeli official contended. "But you've also legitimized Iran as a military nuclear power in the future."

The Obama administration disagrees with Israel's assessment of the agreement, calling the agreement with Iran sufficient.

Israel's fears the agreement guarantees Iran as a military nuclear power, with no turning back, leaves Israel with one alternative.  With Iran given a free path to becoming a full-fledged nuclear power, Israel insists that the Jewish nation's only retort to the fundamentally flawed deal is force.  

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened the use of force against Iran several times since 2009, even seeking authorization from his cabinet in 2011. Iran's program has since grown in size and scope.

War is not the preference, but may be necessary to stop the advancement of a nuclear Iran.  Reality has dictated that if Israel strikes Iran, it would be alone.  The Obama administration has no interest in assisting Israel in a strike against Iran.

Because of the reluctance of American assistance, the capabilities of Israel to launch a successful strike against Iran has been doubted.

"People have underestimated Israel many, many times in the past," said an Israeli official, "and they underestimate it now."

If Israel is cornered into war, and strikes Iran, whether the American government wishes to be involved, or not, the United States, and the rest of the world, will be pulled into the confrontation.  If war between Israel and Iran should erupt, all of the Islamic factions will join together to stand against Israel.

Israel's war may be something bigger than anyone can imagine, a battle for the Middle East of biblical proportions.  The fear is, the Obama administration may choose the wrong side of the conflict, once again.

-- Political Pistachio Conservative News and Commentary

1 comment:

joetote said...

And what can be worse for Israel than the news that just came out that our Bozos in charge are negotiating a 7 month extension of the talks with Iran. This administration seems hell bent on the elimination of Israel and one cannot blame them one bit if the act to stop the Iranians from getting the bomb. And make no mistake here. If the clowns that give us our info say Iran is "maybe a year or so from getting the bomb", one has to assume they are in fact within a month or so if not less.