LAST WEEK STRAIGHT UP: 9-7
LAST WEEK vs. SPREAD: 9-7
SEASON STRAIGHT UP: 124-67-1
SEASON vs. SPREAD: 96-96
It's odd when I have a week where I do better against the spread and fall off in straight-up picks. I'd had a nice, long hot streak, but week #13 was one where irritating parity reasserted itself. Ah, well, at least I nailed the Seahawks' win over the 49ers (i.e. The Pick That Mattered). And as the Arizona Cardinals obligingly fell on their faces in Atlanta, the spread in the NFC West is down to one game with a whopping four left to play. Suddenly, things are looking very, VERY up.
I say that despite my picks for the Seattle's and Arizona's respective games below. Upsets in both are very possible, even likely.
Yes, the Champs (current power ranking #3) are playing at NFC East-leading Philadelphia (current power ranking #7). But weather conditions will be very Seattle-esque (forties, partly cloudy, chance of rain), so no snow or Arctic bowl is in the offing. The matchups look intriguing as well. The Eagles' balanced, high-powered offense (#6 rushing, #5 passing, #4 overall) against the Legion of Boom (#5 against the run, #3 against the pass, #1 overall). Elite defense almost always beats elite offense - advantage, Seattle. On the other side of the ball, the Champs field the NFL's top rushing attack, led by Marshawn Lynch, with a supporting cast of Robert Turbin, Christine Michael, and Russell Wilson's long distance scampers, and a passing game that is only #29 in the league because of the 'hawks run-first philosophy. The Eagles defensive squad they'll be facing is....how shall I put this? Not good. Fair to middlin' against the run (#11), but horrible against the pass (#26).
And here's the, um, kicker: Philly is very turnover prone. And it just so happens that the Champs' pass rush and the turnovers it used to generate have been finally warming up of late.
The only thing that makes me a little bit leery is Coach Chip Kelley's preference for relentless up-tempo offense. If they can maximum-overdrive the LOB back on its heels and get an early lead, the game could unfold like the Kansas City loss did, a back-and-forth affair where Seattle's running game is less of a factor.
Although I still come back to that godawful Eagles' secondary. I think Russell Wilson could have a huge game today, and with a few takeaways thrown in, it could be a very good day.
Chiefs (coached by....former Eagles coach Andy Reid, and the team that is the reason we're not already in a tie with....) at Cardinals? It's kind of a tossed salad. Power rankings: KC #13, Arizona #15. Offensively, the Chiefs can run (#7) but can't pass (#31), while the Cards can't run (#31), and with Carson Palmer out for the year, wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald also hurt, and Drew Stanton looking like the backup QB he really is, they really can't move the ball through the air much either. On the other side of the ball, KC is great against the pass (#1), but can't stop the run to save their lives (#30), while Arizona is great against the run (#6), but has air defenses like Egypt's in the Six Day War (#27).
So how does this all shake out? The Chiefs probably get a few turnovers, quarterback Alex Smith has at least as big a day as the Falcons' Matt Ryan did last week, and the Big Red perhaps finds itself in a flat-footed tie in an NFC West race they led by three games just three weeks before.
Or, put another way, I'm either rooting against or expressing a lack of confidence in at least two of my picks this week. Which, given that I only went 9-7 a week ago, is probably the way to bet.
If I gambled, that is.
[Straight up picks indicated by asterisk (*); picks against the spread in parentheses (x).]
Baltimore
Miami* (-3)
New England* (-3.5)
San Diego
Buffalo (+10)
Denver*
Carolina
New Orleans* (-9.5)
Houston* (-4.5)
Jacksonville
Indianapolis* (-3.5)
Cleveland
Kansas City
Arizona* (-1)
N.Y. Giants* (pick'em)
Tennessee
N.Y. Jets
Minnesota* (-5.5)
Pittsburgh (+3.5)
Cincinnati*
St. Louis* (-2.5)
Washington
Seattle (+1)
Philadelphia*
San Francisco* (-7.5)
Oakland
Tampa
Detroit* (-9.5)
~~~~~~~~~~~
Atlanta
Green Bay* (-11.5)
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