NFL Week 16 Predictions

by JASmius



LAST WEEK STRAIGHT UP: 11-5
LAST WEEK vs. SPREAD: 7-9

SEASON STRAIGHT UP: 146-77-1
SEASON vs. SPREAD: 113-111

And so it arrives.  The marble match for all the rubbers.  The showdown for the NFC West crown.  Live from the Toaster in Glendale, Arizona, with Al Micheals, Cris Collinsworth, Michelle Tafoya, and the NBC Sunday Night Football crew and accompanying national television audience in tow, it's the homestanding Arizona Cardinals taking their best shot - or, rather, the best shot they have - at dethroning the defending World Champion Seattle Seahawks.

Here's a hint, gentles: That ain't gonna happen.

The tale of the tape:

POWER RANKING: Seattle #4, Arizona #11
TOTAL OFFENSE RANKING: Seattle #11, Arizona #24
PASS OFFENSE RANKING: Arizona #15, Seattle #30

Caveats: (1) The 'hawks offense is designed to be run-first, with passing as a supplement.  With the Broncos', Packers', or Patriots' offenses installed in Hawkville, Russell Wilson would put up comparable numbers to Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady.  And (2) the Cards are down to their third-string quarterback, Ryan Lindley, who has never thrown a touchdown pass and hasn't played a down since 2012.  And he'll be facing The Blue Wave (Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril - just signed to an extension on Friday - and Bruce Irvin, among other pass rushers), and the Legion of Boom (see below).

RUSH OFFENSE RANKING: Seattle #1, Arizona #30
TOTAL DEFENSE RANKING: Seattle #1, Arizona #14
PASS DEFENSE RANKING: Seattle #1, Arizona #29
RUSH DEFENSE RANKING: Seattle #5, Arizona #6

The Cardinals have been objectively and independently confirmed as the luckiest team in the NFL this season.  They can't run the ball, and their passing game largely consists of the three or four shots down the field that head coach Bruce Ariens takes every game, an inordinate number of which have connected this year.  This gambit didn't work with backup Drew Stanton taking the snaps at the Clink a month ago, so the chances of Ryan Lindley pulling it off are correspondingly diminished.  Their defense is stout against the run, and held Marshawn Lynch to 39 yards on 15 carries the last time, but Russell Wilson picked up a more-than offsetting 73 yards on the ground, which means if Arizona keys on containing RW3, they'll be opening up the middle for Beast Mode.  And there's the matter of that bottom-dwelling Cardinal pass defense, which Mr. Wilson will exploit.

But I come back to a years-stale third string quarterback going up against the best NFL defense of the past decade (at least).  Arizona's defense is going to have to redefine "opportunistic" and generate a ton of turnovers to give themselves any chance against the Champs, because this is one matchup that luck isn't going to hand to them.

[Straight up picks indicated by asterisk (*); picks against the spread in parentheses (x).]

Atlanta* (+6)
New Orleans

Baltimore
Houston* (+5.5)

New England* (-10)
N.Y. Jets

Buffalo* (-6)
Oakland

Cleveland
Carolina* (-4)

Detroit* (-7)
Chicago

Indianapolis* (+3)
Dallas

Kansas City
Pittsburgh* (-3)

Green Bay* (-10.5)
Tampa

Minnesota (+6.5)
Miami*

N.Y. Giants
St. Louis* (-5)

Seattle*
Arizona (+8)

~~~~~~~~~~

Denver* (-3.5)
Cincinnati