So, here we are. Or, rather, there you are, as I don't have the coin to even hitchhike to Glendale, Arizona and sleep on a park bench. Eventually, I won't have the coin to stay here and sleep on a park bench, but that's a story for another day that I'll only be able to tell if I can sneak into a public library and use their internet connection when nobody's looking. And even then my b.o. will give me away in a matter of seconds.
But we're talking about another Super Bowl, and another round of glorification of the opponent's offense, legendary head coach, Hall of Fame quarterback, and, in this case, "best tight end in the NFL" and afterthought-esque dismissal of the greatest defense in thirty years. Been there, done that, got the Super Bowl championship t-shirt.
I have a theory about that dynamic.
It's not just that everybody goes ga-ga over offense these days. That's what the NFL wants, that's why they've tilted the rules so ridiculously in favor of offenses, that's why they're turning what was once the greatest of American sports into an Arena League farce. At the end of the proverbial day, the old adage still holds true: great defenses beat great offenses, offense puts butts in the seats but defense wins championships. And that's one big reason among many why the league, and the rest of the country outside the Pacific Northwest, doesn't like the Seattle Seahawks and so viscerally want to dismiss them. They cut against the grain. They're, in football terms, politically incorrect. And they're damned proud of it.
My theory, though, has to do with the games that immediately precede the Super Bowl. Last year, while the Denver Broncos were cruising leisurely through the AFC playoffs not even breaking a sweat, after a season of blowing almost every team's doors off with the most prolific offensive display ever, the Seahawks were slogging through epic battles with the New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers. Indeed, if the Saints hadn't whiffed on two earlier field goal attempts, they probably would have knocked Seattle off 24-23 after they recovered an onside kick with a minute left in regulation. And the NFC Championship Game was a toe-to-toe heavyweight fight for the ages as the 'hawks battled not just their bitter rivals but virtual doppelgangers in terms of talent level and style of play (run-first, mobile QB, fast, powerful, lethal, suffocating defense). Denver's path to Super Bowl XLVIII, in short, looked more impressive than did Seattle's. Which is why, after being the favorites to win it all the entire season, the actual Super Bowl XLVIII line flopped over to the Broncos being a slight favorite.
This year? Virtually the same thing. New England had to struggle to get past the Baltimore Ravens (always a bad matchup for them) but then destroyed the Indianapolis Colts (a very good matchup for them), flat balls or no flat balls. Contrast that with the less-impressive-than-it-looked Seahawks win over the Carolina Panthers, followed by Russell Wilson's worst 57 minutes of football ever culminating in that miracle comeback against the Green Bay Packers. And even if RW3 hadn't thrown four picks (out of which the Pack only cashed in two field goals), it still would have been a nail-biter right to the end. Once again, their Super Bowl opponent looked impressive and the 'hawks did not. And, you know, Belichik, Brady, and Gronk, and how are the Champs possibly going to stop them, yata, yata, yata. And when the Vegas line came out, Seattle, who'd been the favorite to repeat for the past two months, slid to a one point underdog.
Suffice it to say, we've seen this dynamic unfold before. But is it justified? Are the Patriots better than the Seahawks? Not according to the numbers:
TOTAL OFFENSE: Seattle #9, New England #11
PASSING OFFENSE: New England #9, Seattle #27
RUSHING OFFENSE: Seattle #1, New England #18
TOTAL DEFENSE: Seattle #1, New England #13
PASSING DEFENSE: Seattle #1, New England #17
RUSHING DEFENSE: Seattle #3, New England #9
Of course, some of those numbers are a little deceiving. The Seahawks will always have a low pass offense ranking because they throw the ball less than any other team in the league. This is why I don't sweat all the criticism of the Seattle receiving corps that pisses off "Angry" Doug Baldwin so much. Just look at Golden Tate's numbers last year with the 'hawks (64 receptions, 898 yards, 5 TDs) versus his numbers this year with the decidedly more pass-happy Detroit Lions (99 receptions, 1,334 yards, 4 TDs). The leading "pedestrian" receiver in Seattle a year ago goes to a team that throws the ball a ton more, and voila! He's no longer a sprig of parsley on the side of the plate, he's....well, Calvin Johnson is the main course, but Tate was a close second on the entree list. It'd be the same with Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse and Luke Willson, et al if they were playing in a pass-first offense. But they don't, so they're never going to put up the eye-catching numbers that their peers do, and thus they will always be, yep, dismissed. And yet when you need a crucial big play down the field - like Russell Wilson's pair of 35 yard tosses to first Baldwin, and then Kearse for the game winner in overtime - these guys are absolutely money.
Equivalently, while there's no question that the Pats can't remotely match the Seahawks defensively, they are a good defense - Vince Wilfork clogs up the middle of the line against the run, a la the injured Brandon Mebane (more on that later), Jaime Collins is an emerging star at linebacker (Dont'a Hightower isn't too shabby either), and their corners, Darrelle Revis and ex-LOBer Brandon "Break His Shoulder" Browner, are arguably #1B to Richard Sherman's and Byron Maxwell's #1A. It might not look like it from their pass defense ranking, but that is, I think, because New England was usually way ahead and opposing teams were forced into pass-only comeback mode. It's the same reason why I think the Pats' run defense ranking is a little, er, over-inflated as well. Basically, with Tom Brady, Gronk healthy for a full season, etc. New England's defense didn't have to be great, just good enough. And so it was.
If this is starting to sound like last year's Broncos, go to the head of the class. What's that saying? "Good enough never is." And if the Legion of Boom (entire Seahawks defense, a shorthand I'll continue to use, no matter what Sherm's lawyers might say) was at full strength, I would have no worries whatsoever. Unfortunately, that's not the case.
Which brings us back to the absence of nose tackle and run-stopper Brandon Mebane, out for the season with a torn hamstring, as well as that of his replacement, Jordan Hill, who was knocked out of the last regular season game against the St. Louis Rams with a knee injury, and prior to that had collected five and a half sacks. God bless 34-year-old Kevin Williams, signed off the Minnesota Vikings' scrap heap, but he simply hasn't constipated opposing rushers the way Mebane and Hill did. And that is a serious weakness. Correction: that is THE serious weakness Seattle brings to this Super Bowl.
We've heard all week about the Svengali/Megamind coaching ability of Bill Belichik. We've heard about how he always takes away on opposing offense's top two options. To which, honestly, I alternately chuckle and yawn. What are the Seahawks' two top offensive options? Hand the ball the Marshawn Lynch, or let Russell Wilson keep it and playmake with his arm and legs. "AHA!" Svengali/Megamind says, "I'll stack the box against Beast Mode and put a spy on Wilson to keep him in the pocket! Tomorrow, the world! BWAHAHAHAHA!"
<yawn> So what? That's what every team tries to do against Seattle. It's the great and, in this day and age of countless convoluted formations and switches and tricks and twitches, unique aspect of the Seattle Seahawks: They are what used to be known as WYSIWYG: What you see is what you get. Pete Carroll said it on ESPN after last year's Super Bowl: They've built a team patterned after the old Vince Lombardi Green Bay Packers, a team with no weaknesses, that does comparatively few things, but does them so well that even though you know what's coming, you still won't be able to stop it. And look at the numbers: Lynch rushed for 1,306 yards and caught 37 passes for 367 more and 17 TDs combined, and Wilson threw for 3,475 and ran for another 849, tops among quarterbacks, 16th in the NFL overall, and, combined with his passing yards, putting him sixth among all NFL quarterbacks.
You know what's coming, but you still can't stop it. Not for sixty minutes, anyway. And so it shall be today. We'll see a lot of read option, Beast Mode will go over a hundred yards and put himself in contention for MVP honors should the Champs win - and who wouldn't want to see that post-game trophy presentation interview? - and Wilson will make his plays on the keep and through the air. If the Patriots had that much difficulty matching up with the Ravens run game and the play-action passes it sets up, the 'hawks are going to be a nightmare.
But, believe it or not, that is not going to be the decisive side of the ball.
I know, I know, I would never have imagined my having to say this. After all, the teams that gave the Patriots the most fits had run-first offenses and fast, hard-hitting defenses. So they would seem to be made to order for the Seahawks. But the 'hawks have a critical weakness on the defensive side of the ball, and it's already been on display throughout the NFC playoffs: They can't stop the run without Brandon Mebane.
Without Mebane and the aforementioned Jordan Hill, Seattle has given up 132 rushing yards each to both the Panthers and the Packers, and in neither game was there a dominant rusher for either team (Jonathan Stewart led Carolina with 70 yards, Eddie Lacy led Green Bay with 73). Whoever was carrying the ball was able to get consistent gains on the ground.
Now we're talking about the respective #7 and #11 rushing teams in the NFL over the course of the season, whereas the Patriots were #18. They have a "committee"-style running game with a platoon of backs (LeGarrette Blount, Shane Vereen,
I wish I could believe that. But this gets us back to Svengali/Megamind. One thing that is legitimately true about Bill Belichick is how versatile his offense is. Against the Ravens (#4 versus the run, #23 versus the pass), the Pats ran the ball thirteen times for fourteen yards, while Tom Brady went 33 for 50, 367 yards and three TDs. Against the Colts (#12 against the pass, #18 against the run), the Pats ran it 40 times for 177 yards (148 of them from LeGarrette Blount), and Brady was a pedestrian 23 of 35 for 226 yards (albeit three TDs). Belichick's specialty is the diametric opposite of Pete Carroll's: He adapts his attack to the opponent he's facing. He's like a Transformer. Or the Borg. Whatever defensive weakness you have, that's what his offense is going to attack.
This is why I expect a steady diet of Blount today going right between the tackles. Not outside, where Seattle's superior team speed and pursuit will be problematic at best, but straight at Kevin Williams and the rest of that light interior defensive line that was effectively exploited by Carolina and Green Bay. And, just as in those earlier contests, that will set up Tom Brady for play action passes, and that means a steady parallel diet of Rob Gronkowski.
If you look at three of the Seahawks' four losses this year (the first Rams game was a fluke of a trio of spectacular special teams failures) - against the Chargers, Cowboys, and Chiefs - the latter two were games in which the opponent ran it right down the Champs' throats (162 and 190 yards, respectively) and neither the defense nor the offense were able to make big counter-plays (as they did in the playoff wins thus far). And San Diego essentially took the Broncos' game plan from Super Bowl XLVIII and made it work, as the Phillip Rivers to Antonio
Of course, that was back when Kam Chancellor was playing on one leg. Of the much-ballyhooed eleven TD passes Seattle gave up to tight ends this season, nine of them came in the first four weeks, and only two since then. Just ask Saints all-pro tight end Jimmy Graham how much success he's had against the LOB.
Still, the blueprint for beating Seattle isn't much of a secret: run the ball consistently, play action passes, move the chains, wear down the LOB (whole defense), get ahead, and force an offense not built to play from behind (the Packer game notwithstanding) to do just that.
Easier said than done? Obviously. Can the Patriots pull it off? They've proven that they can against everybody else they've played.
But then, they haven't played us yet. Look at the NFC Championship Game; Green Bay tried, and they had success for 57 minutes....and then the roof fell in. Oh, yeah, and Russell Wilson threw four picks. Who's expecting him to throw even one today? Besides Darrelle Revis.
Is there a blueprint for beating New England? Well, three of their four losses came against the #10 (Kansas City), #11 (Green Bay), and #12 (Miami) rushing offenses in the league, and Seattle is #1....by almost thirty yards a game. The Patriots' defensive line is weak on the ends (Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones) instead of in the middle, so Beast Mode should be able to get around Vince Wilfork. Establishing the run will open up Russell Wilson's arsenal of play action, rollouts, and designated runs, in which his passing game is strongest. And as good as corners Revis and Browner are on the line in coverage, safeties Devin McCourty and especially Patrick Chung can be beaten. Seahawks tight end Luke Willson could have a, well, "Gronkesque" day against him.
On the other side of the ball? All four of the teams that beat the Pats this year had top-ten pass defenses. Seattle is #1....by almost twenty yards a game, and the only team to hold opponents under two hundred passing yards per contest. For how much yardage did NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers throw two weeks ago? 179. And then there's the fact that left tackle Nate Solder can be had by speed rushing defensive ends on Tom Brady's blindside, from where Cliff Avril will be hurtling. And Michael Bennett has been known to line up anywhere and everywhere on the line of scrimmage. Which is precisely why Belichik is going to need a credible running game today.
So what's the pick? Will Svengali/Megamind zero in on that great, big hole in the middle of the Seahawk defensive line and send LeGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen and
Well, nobody predicts Super Bowl blowouts, even though there have been so many of them. And since the Patriots are a tougher, much more complete team than the Denver Broncos were last year, I certainly won't be bucking that custom.
Otherwise, I'm left in something of a quandary. And so is the "expert" consensus, of which there isn't one, as the tally across all the networks and websites I frequent has 32 prognosticators picking the Seahawks, and 30 picking the Patriots. Not that any of them are making my pick, of course.
On the one hand, I have my numerical prediction model, which yielded a 65.4% accuracy rate straight up and 51.2% against the spread this season. That model favors New England by 2.5. However, if there's a weakness in that model, it is that it can be heavily influenced by the most recent game either or both teams have played - and, of course, the Patriots crushed the Colts in the AFC title game by 38 points. Had Seattle and NE matched up two weeks ago on a neutral site, my prediction model would have favored the Champs by a field goal.
I'm not a "gut" prognosticator. And, of course, since my team is in the game, going that route would pretty much force me to pick the Patriots in order not to be dismissed as a homer.
So since New England is kind of the AFC's version of the Green Bay Packers - Hall of Fame QB, underrated running game, good but not great defense - and since the Packers beat the Patriots at Lambeau this season, let's use the NFC Championship Game as a template, and assume that Russell Wilson throws one pick instead of four (and no Doug Baldwin kickoff return fumble).
FIRST QUARTER: Patriots move the ball on the LOB with Blount runs and Brady short passes. Seahawks bend but don't break, as Richard Sherman picks off Brady once in the end zone. Seattle offense off to its usual slow start. Patriots 7, Seahawks 0.
SECOND QUARTER: Marshawn Lynch starts picking up steam. Russell Wilson engineers touchdown drive right before halftime. Patriots 10, Seahawks 7.
THIRD QUARTER: After Elmo bares Katy Perry's rack, nothing much happens. Not being significantly behind, Pete Carroll doesn't go for the fake field goal and Steven Hauschka puts the three-spot on the board. The tension builds.... Seahawks 10, Patriots 10.
FOURTH QUARTER: Here's where I mix it up a little bit. All hell breaks loose. Another long Brady drive stalls and ends in a field goal. Patriots, 13-10. Seattle answers with a long Marshawn Lynch TD run. Seahawks. 17-13. Patriots answer with a long TD pass, maybe off a gadget play, like Julian Edleman's strike to Dan Amendola against the Ravens. Or maybe Brady to Gronk, to keep all the "experts" happy. Patriots, 20-17. Setting the stage for the the game-winning, repeat-clinching Russell Wilson touchdown pass to tight end Luke Willson with under a minute left.
Seahawks 24, Patriots 20. RW3 wins the MVP, because the press hates Beast Mode as much as he hates them. Although if he catches the game-winner to go with his rushing score and hundred-plus yards, it'd be hard to justify it.
Or maybe Ryan Wendell sends the first snap ten feet over Tom Brady's head and out of the end zone, or Wilson, Lynch, Sherman, Earl Thomas, and Chancellor are all carted off the field in the first quarter, and the rout in either direction will be on. The unexpected has been known to happen on Super Sunday, after all.
Just ask Elmo.
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