I listened to the first seven candidates, the lower tier, on the radio, then caught the Big Ten candidates on television's Fox News Channel. For the most part the first Republican debate for the 2016 Presidency went as expected, though there were a few high points, low points, and surprises. The following is my scorecard for the Fox News GOP Debate for the Republican Nomination for President of the United States, 2016.
Biggest Positive Surprise: Ben Carson
Low Point: Donald Trump
Even, and Steady as she goes: Scott Walker
Most Conservative Talking Points: Ted Cruz
Generally Said What the People Want to Hear: Marco Rubio
Best Social Conservative Lines: Mike Huckabee
Biggest Lies: Jeb Bush
Proves He's An Establishment Guy: John Kasich
Biggest Winners: Tie. . . Carly and Carson
Biggest Losers: Trump and Christie
The debate began with a discussion that cornered Donald Trump into revealing something we already suspected. . . he's willing to run as a third candidate (independent) if he believes he can win that way. The moderators brought up the H. Ross Perot split of the Republican vote, but Trump seemed not to be care about such concerns.
But, before we get into that, let's talk about the lower tiered candidates.
The first debate, a nice little affair earlier in the evening that was conducted in a manner very similar to the later event, but dubbed the Kids Table by many pundits, allowed the candidates receiving the lower polling to take stabs at the higher polled candidates without fear of a response. . . and they took quite a few jabs at the front-runner, Donald Trump.
In all honesty, Trump's performance later on would be bad enough that the jabs by the lower tier was not really necessary.
The second tier of candidates were businesswoman Carly Fiorina, former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore (a person I have had the chance in the past to talk to personally), South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, former New York Governor George Pataki, former Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum,
Carly Fiorina is a valuable candidate in the race because she can take stabs at Hillary like no other Republican can, but she has no chance to win this thing. I think she knows that, and is in the race so that she may be disruptive to Hillary, and I think she wishes to raise her name recognition and political stock for a lower office elsewhere. During the debate, Carly Fiorina was the clear winner, spending a lot of time going after Trump, and also spending a lot of time revealing her incredible ideas in how to turn this mess around. Here's the thing. It wasn't like Carly squeaked in the win. It wasn't even close. She came across as politically savvy, very intelligent, and able to whip out the sharp quips as quick as. . . well, Ronald Reagan. She hammered on Trump's past relationship with the Clinton Crime Family, and articulated conservatism in a very good way, explaining the dangers of an intrusive government, and the pitfalls of big government if we stay on the same path. If there was a weakness at all, it was her hesitance in being a hawk on National Security. Chalk that up as a lack of political experience, and a lack of experience around military matters.
Jim Gilmore has always been the quintessential conservative. I liked him way back in 2007 when I had the opportunity to interview him on my Political Pistachio radio program to discuss why he withdrew from the Presidential race that eventually saw Barack Obama defeat John McCain. The former governor of Virginia has not held office in 13 years, but he recognizes that times have changed, and the push against the liberal left must be better defined. He pointed out that in addition to his governorship and stint as attorney general of Virginia, he also has a fair share of foreign policy experience that includes an intelligence background, time with Homeland Security, and he was a governor during the 911 attacks. His standing after the dust cleared in the Fox News debate was somewhere in the middle. He never wowed anybody, but then again, he didn't make any major stumbles, either. He did, however, sometimes make one wonder if he was going to remain awake through the debate.
Lindsey Graham showed us what he always shows us. He's strong on national security, and weak every place else. The South Carolina Senator did have some great one-liners, though. "When I get onstage with Hillary Clinton, we won't be debating about the science, we'll be debating about the solutions." --- "To all Americans who want a better life, don't vote for Hillary Clinton. You won't get it … She represents a third term of a failed presidency." --- "I know the difference between being flat broke, she doesn't … Hillary, I know flat broke." --- "You want to see a war on women? Come to me with Iraq and Afghanistan." But, even on National Defense, he was quite flat. Graham was definitely one of the losers of the debate.
Bobby Jindal is the Governor of Louisiana (and I prefer governors in the White House. . . I am one to appreciate a proven record as an executive before one becomes the ultimate executive), and a fantastic conservative. He's sharp, he quick witted, and his politics are for the most part pretty solid as a conservative. Unfortunately, his personality fails to woo the crowds, for one, and secondly, technically, he's not eligible. I agree, even an ineligible conservative republican is better than anything the Democrats can throw out there, but I mention his ineligibility as a staunch supporter of the U.S. Constitution. If one delves deeply into the definition of Natural Born Citizen, Vatell's Law of Nations, the Immigration and Naturalization Act of 1790, and Minor v. Happersett all support the concept that to be a Natural Born Citizen, "Both" parents must have been American citizens at the time of one's birth. He did, during the debate, provide the audience with two fantastic lines. "They're (President Obama and Hillary Clinton) working hard to turn the American dream into the European nightmare." --- “Give Bernie Sanders credit. At least he’s honest enough to call himself a socialist. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are no better.”
George Pataki is the one we will probably see drop out first. He's ineffectual, and nobody knows who the former New York governor is. He claims he did a lot of good things in a blue State. His record is not as sparkling as he makes it out to be. His one advantage will be in the minds of those who hold fighting Islam as a high priority, because of "when" he was governor of New York. "I was governor of New York on September 11. I know better than anyone that we're at greater risk of another attack."
Rick Perry, the Texan that has been very successful as governor, is best remembered for his stumbles during the last election. This time around he's not getting the same favorability from the voters he got four years ago (before his stumbles). In the 2016 Fox News Republican Debate, Rick Perry scored a solid second place behind Carly Fiorina among the second tier candidates, despite seeming unprepared at first. He wasn't even in the ballpark when it comes to competing with Carly, but he definitely beat everyone else easily. Once Perry got out of the gate, he was strong, and humorous. For some, his one-liners will definitely be memorable. "I've had my issues with Donald Trump … He is using his celebrity rather than his conservatism. How can you run for the Republican nomination and be for single-payer health care?" --- "The American people are never going to trust Washington, D.C. and for good reason." --- "I'm going to take a bottle of White Out with me and get started on all of those executive orders from (President Obama)."
Rick Santorum is a steady conservative like Gilmore, but seemed to be more awake than the slower and sluggish Gilmore. Santorum's performance seemed as if he picked up where he left off last election, though he quipped he is farther along than he was last time. Santorum is strong on conservatism, especially the social issues, and I give him an edge over Jindal for third place simply because he was sharper, and crisper. He did complain about how the questions were being presented by the Fox News moderators, but we must be reminded that the questions were designed to make the candidates sweat under pressure, not throw them softballs. The liberal left media did back flips, as they waved their rainbow flags, at one point during Santorum's delivery, seeing him as contradictory from their point of view. Santorum is a well-known opponent of homosexual marriage. He said in response to a question asking whether or not he would separate immigrant families through deportation, “The reason America is a great country, the reason is because our compassion is in our laws. When we treat everyone equally under the law, that’s when we feel good about being Americans.” Apparently, his critics on the liberal left still think a deviant behavior like homosexuality is a constitutional right, or a civil right, when in reality it is a mental illness.
Okay, enough about the lower tier. What about the Big Ten, the prime time event that matched the ten top polling Republicans against each other in head to head combat on the Fox News Debate in Cleveland, Ohio?
Kasich was on his home turf, and many believe he won the thing. I beg to differ. I will say this, though. . . the winner was not Donald Trump.
The list of candidates in the prime time debate:
Donald Trump, 69, real-estate magnate and reality TV star
Jeb Bush, 62, former Florida governor
Scott Walker, 47, Wisconsin governor
Mike Huckabee, 59, former Arkansas governor
Ben Carson, 63, retired neurosurgeon
Ted Cruz, 44, Texas senator
Marco Rubio, 44, Florida senator
Rand Paul, 52, Kentucky senator
Chris Christie, 52, New Jersey governor
John Kasich, 63, Ohio governor
Donald Trump ran into trouble early, and as with the second tier debate, he was often the target (when it wasn't Hillary). Trump was hard-hitting, and willing to say it like it is, which is what has launched him to the top of the polls, but his answers regarding running as a third candidate, and his defense of his past days as a Democrat and as a provider of political funding to Democrats, did not go over too well. Immigration was his high point, as was dealing with the enemy overseas, but everything else knocked him way down. I would be surprised if the inevitable fall of Donald Trump is not already now in full swing. Trump was in trouble from the beginning, with the very first question: "Is there any candidate on the stage who is unwilling to pledge to support the Republican nominee and who is unwilling to pledge not to run an independent campaign?" Donald Trump was the only candidate who raised his hand. “I will not make the pledge at this time,” Mr. Trump said. He said he wants to be the Republican nominee and said he would make the pledge if he is in fact the GOP nominee. If not, all bets are off. The Fox News moderators were quick to remind Trump what happened when H. Ross Perot ran as a third candidate, but Trump seemed unaffected by the flurry. Trump did shine when discussing foreign policy and economic threats: He said “this country doesn’t have time” for political correctness. ”We lose to China, we lose to Mexico – both in trade and at the border.” Moderator Megyn Kelly challenged him to defend comments calling women fat pigs, sluts and dogs. “Only Rosie O’Donnell,” the quick-witted Mr. Trump said, speaking of the entertainer. Ms. Kelly told him, “For the record, it was way beyond Rosie O’Donnell.” He received loud cheers when he reminded everyone that he believes there should be a wall between the United States and Mexico, with a beautiful door to let in those who immigrate legally. In response to the "criminals and rapists" remark that the media hit him on weeks before, Trump said the Mexican government has no interest in dealing with its violent criminals because “the stupid leaders of the United States will do it for them.”
Jeb Bush said a few things that sounded conservative, but when he said them he sounded a little forced, as if he didn't believe what he said any more than I did. He came across as an establishment guy, and only Chris Christie looked to be more to the left than Jeb Bush did. Jeb Bush's biggest weakness was on immigration, and he was hammered on that issue by the moderators. He tried to say the right thing, but one could not be sure he believed what he said. Jeb Bush, in the debate, framed the immigration issue in economic terms. Many families who enter the U.S. feel they have “no other option,” he said. “They want to provide for their family.” Then he pivoted to border security, an easier issue to say the popular thing with. "It’s incumbent on American leaders," he said, "to enforce immigration laws by securing the border." When asked about Iraq, Jeb Bush said, “Knowing what we know now with faulty intelligence … it was a mistake. I wouldn’t have gone in.” Remember, Bush is a seasoned politician, who's answers are more dependent upon which way the political wind is blowing, than what he truly believes. To his credit, he did add, "President Obama abandoned Iraq and ISIS was created because of the void the U.S. left. To honor those who died in Iraq, the U.S. now needs to take out ISIS with every tool at our disposal." Jeb Bush supports Common Core, but refused to bite when the moderators asked about his opinion, and he instead launched into an explanation that everyone could applaud to, which said that education should be up to the States. . . but there should be a standard.
Scott Walker was steady as she goes. He said some very intelligent things, defended his past confusion regarding immigration quite well, and explained his value in the race and his experience that would make him a good President of the United States, but I am not sure his delivery impacted voters as he'd hoped. His fire was not what we've seen in speeches, and his explanations may have been at an intellectual level too high for some less informed voters. His biggest highlight in the debate was when he was asked about the Iran Nuclear Deal. The Wisconsin Governor said he would “terminate the deal on day one.” He also said that Iran and the Islamic State are “tied together,” a position that leftists dispute, since Iran is sending militias into Iraq to fight the Sunni Islamic State militants; but a reality that conservative Middle East experts support as being accurate because they understand the nature of Islam. On abortion, Scott Walker exclaimed he is pro-life across the board. The son of a Baptist Preacher, his comment about being pro-life even when a woman's health is at risk drew some dire from Megyn Kelly, though I don't think he explained his position well enough. It comes down to a question. If it must be a choice, who should be chosen to live? A woman well into her life? Or a baby just beginning its life? He did well, overall, in the debate, but he did not win it. He did not, however, lose, either. He did well enough to hold his position. Walker did, however, have the quip of the night: "The Russian and Chinese governments know more about Hillary Clinton’s email server than members of the U.S. Congress do."
Mike Huckabee said some fantastic things, and came across as the social conservative to beat. However, his past comments and record haunts him, and he is a prime target for the media when it comes to attacking the slower members of the herd. Mike's campaign seems to be as it has been in the past: He says some good things, has a lot of people happy he's in the race, but the former Arkansas governor just won't be able to beat the bigger boys on the block. Huckabee made remarks about moving our income tax to a flat tax, but failed to explain how he would reduce federal spending.
Ben Carson was the biggest surprise for me. Despite being limited in chances to speak, and he even said such at one point, his style was incredible, his political prowess unmatched, and his honesty was hard-hitting and articulated in a manner that got me excited about him being in the race. I've said from the beginning that I like Carson, but I have some doubts, such as regarding past statements he's made regarding the Second Amendment, his lack of foreign policy experience, and his lack of political experience. Like Huckabee, Carson touted a flat tax, but compared it to tithing, making one believe he'd take it all the way down to 10%. That said, like Huckabee, Ben Carson did fail to explain how he would reduce federal spending, which is an even bigger concern, in my opinion. That said, last night's debate reminded us why it is important he's in the race. He articulates his position in a way that the other candidates need to learn from. He refuses to play the political "beat around the bush" game. He may not win the Republican nod for President, but if a GOP candidate wins in 2016, they would be wise to have Ben Carson involved in their presidential team in some way. The winner of this debate in the sense of the candidate that benefited most from the debate is definitely Ben Carson.
Ted Cruz has been the Tea Party favorite, and his fundraising has not been too shabby. He is conservative, speaks his mind well, is a master debater, and came across strong in the debate. His failure to be eligible (see what I said about Jindal not being eligible because both parents weren't citizens at the time of his birth), and his lack of maturity as a politician in the sense of executive experience, however, will keep him from winning the primary. Don't get me wrong. Cruz is a great conservative. I love him as a Senator. I am a huge fan of Ted Cruz. I don't think, however, he is the best man to represent the GOP in 2016 for President of the United States. Besides, the targets on his back and forehead are so huge, I have a feeling the media will have him dropping out before the primary reaches us. At one point, Cruz was cornered for his criticism of Republicans, a violation of Reagan's 11th Commandment, we are being told. He responded that even members of the GOP must be held accountable. “It’s not a question of stupidity. It’s that they don’t want to enforce the immigration laws,” he said, implicating his Republican colleagues in the Senate for refusing to do more to stop illegal immigration. Statements like that is why Ted Cruz is popular with conservatives, and though I have my reservations about him, I would say he placed second or third in the Big Ten portion of the debate, likely battling with Scott Walker for the higher spot.
Marco Rubio is the great deceiver. He tries to talk like a conservative, but his membership in the Gang of Eight, and his record in Florida before becoming a U.S. Senator, says otherwise. He favors the Dream Act. He opposed Arizona's immigration law that the federal government wound up suing the State over. He has been calling for amnesty for years. He supported all parts of the Patriot Act, a law I believe was thought to have been necessary in the face of the terrorist threat, but one that contains components that are in direct opposition to Constitutional authorities and principles. He began his debate presentation with the economy, taking stabs at Hillary Clinton, and remarking that he was raised "paycheck to paycheck." On immigration, Marco Rubio tried to explain his position regarding immigration policy details, discussing who is actually crossing the border and why e-verify is an important piece of the puzzle. The crowd, however, remembered his Gang of Eight days, and other things he's said about immigration, quite well, so Rubio’s answer drew only a smattering of applause. Marco Rubio's faint point in the plus margin is his opposition to Common Core, but when asked about it, he simply reiterated what Bush said about how education is a State issue (an accurate statement, but it didn't tell us much about how he would return education to the States if elected).
Rand Paul did well. He didn't sparkle, but he got his points across well. He even got into it with Christie for a while, and made the New Jersey Governor look really bad. Paul did it with a hint of a smile on his face, and though not as libertarian as his father, Ron Paul, the libertarian streak in Rand Paul shined brightly. His was one of the better performances on stage, to be honest. Senator Paul drew cheers from the crowd when he jumped in and said that Mr. Trump is used to buying and selling politicians, referring to the businessman’s contributions to Democrats during the early part of the debate. Rand Paul has been a target for questioning the GOP's Iraq and ISIS policies, but he clarified that he didn't meant we shouldn't be fighting the enemy, but that we should not be funding and giving military equipment to their allies. The highlight by Paul was when he told Christie, in a momentary dual of words with the large governor, that the New Jersey governor should just go hug Obama, again.
Chris Christie was the RINO in the room. Everyone knew it, and he received a few words about his walk on the beach with Obama from Rand Paul during their dual of words. Huckabee also sought to dual with Christie, too, pointing out Christie's less than conservative ways. Christie had a few good things to say, but by the time the smoke cleared, it was obvious his run for President as a Republican won't last long. He may, however, still have a great chance at winning a primary, if he moved over to the Democrat Party side. After all, they still don't have anyone over there that is remotely close to being a front runner. Christie's responses all seemed scripted, and left one to believe he thinks he has great things to say, but he can't come up with those things off the cuff.
John Kasich, the Ohio Governor, was the hometown favorite, and got a big round of applause when he entered the room, but finished a solid third behind Chris Christie and Jeb Bush as the obvious non-conservatives in the room. Kasich's poor defense of expanding Medicaid in Ohio was among his worst performances during the debate because it came across as a defense of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). He never recovered, and never came across as deserving to be at the Adult Table. Next time they need to switch him with Carly Fiorina.
-- Political Pistachio Conservative News and Commentary
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