Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Why Is Marco Rubio Avoiding Iowa, New Hampshire?

by JASmius



Ya gotta admit, it is a rather....counterintuitive strategy at best:

Republican presidential hopeful Marco Rubio's slow-go campaign strategy is puzzling party operatives in Iowa and New Hampshire, States where voters are used to candidates showering them with attention early and often.

While some GOP hopefuls are already highlighting their progress toward visiting all of Iowa's ninety-nine counties, Rubio's return to the State this week marks his first stop in the caucus battleground in a month. The Florida senator hasn't traveled to New Hampshire, home to the first-in-the-nation primary, since July 4th, though he is expected to return before the end of August.

"You've had some of the others who have worked it a lot harder," said Richard Schwarm, a former Iowa GOP chairman who is uncommitted in the 2016 race. "I don't think it's too late. But I think he should step up the appearances here because we are wide open."

Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire GOP chairman who has yet to back a candidate, said that while Rubio benefits from "goodwill and interest," his infrequent appearances in the State have cost him early endorsements.

"He would have more if he spent more time here," Cullen said.

Rubio has visited New Hampshire just three times since announcing his campaign in early April. His stop in Iowa this week marks his fifth trip to the caucus State as a candidate.

Now to be fair, it's not like camping out in Iowa and New Hampshire for a whole year guarantees a candidate success in either State - that's what Mitt Romney did back in the 2008 campaign, and he managed to actually over-saturate both, wear out his welcome, and lost the Iowa caucuses to Mike Huckabee and the New Hampshire primary to John McCain.  But historically, spending a lot of time in both States early constitutes erring on the side of prudence and caution.  Look, for example, at how Rudy Giuliani blew off both in favor of making his stand in Florida that same year: in exchange for forfeiting Iowa, New Hampshire, AND South Carolina, he came in a rousing....fourth in the Sunshine State.

And yet the Rubio campaign is just chillin', in no hurry, assuming that there'll be plenty of time to catch up as the plains of Hawkeyeville grow colder and the green hills of Graniteville grow white.

I don't think that Senator Rubio is necessarily avoiding the first two stops on the GOP nominating calender; I think that Senator Rubio is running for vice president, not president.  Ya gotta admit, that scenario makes his campaign's general raising of his national profile while ignoring the steps necessary to win the GOP nomination fall right into sensible place.

Exit thought: Are you as stoked for the Rubio-Castro veep debate next year as I am?

No comments: