No, ladies and gentlemen, he's not. Nor will he ever be.
But CNN sure wants to demoralize the GOP grassroots into believing he is:
Jeb Bush is the clear Republican presidential frontrunner, surging to the front of the potential GOP pack following his announcement that he’s “actively exploring” a bid, a new CNN/ORC poll found.
He takes nearly one-quarter — 23% — of Republicans surveyed in the new nationwide poll, putting him 10 points ahead of his closest competitor, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who tallied 13%.
Physician Ben Carson comes in third, with 7% support, and Senator Rand Paul and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee are both tied for fourth with 6%.
That marks a drop in support for all but Christie and Bush from the last CNN/ORC survey of the field, conducted in November. That poll showed Bush in the lead, but only taking 14% of the vote, while Carson came in second with 11% and Christie tied Representative Paul Ryan for fourth with 9% support.
Let me start by saying that this is not so much a post about this poll as it is a post about why I do not typically post about polling. The reason is simple: The one and only time that political polling is ever remotely relevant is in the week before an election. Period. The rest of the time it's entirely masturbatory. It's Obamedia "rain-making". It's manufacturing "news" that is really nothing of the sort. It's "pot-stirring" - especially in the cast of designating the second Bush brother, and self-proclaimed "anti-conservative," as the presumptive 2016 Republican presidential nominee. CNN would have saved a lot of time and money by just publishing a pic of a big, fat extended middle finger under the headline, "[BLEEP] You, Teabaggers, Enjoy Your Third Bush!"
And never is political polling more irrelevant and meaningless than right after an election. Why is thiat? Because the next cycle hasn't even begun yet. At this point there isn't a 2016 GOP field. No candidate has declared. Even the former Florida governor has only declared his intention to explore the possibility of running, not an actual candidacy. I still think that Jeb is throwing out these teases because his book sales are underachieving and he needs to keep his name buzzing.
His surname brings me to my next point: The one and only factor that could possibly account for Jeb Bush topping 2016 GOP presidential polling two years out from that election (if it ever takes place) is name recognition. It's the same factor in Mitt Romney being the other name bobbing on top of these hyperventilating hypotheses. We political junkies consistently forget how little those who don't share our particular hobby pay attention to politics or the political figures therein. Believe it or not, most Americans have never heard of Chris Christie or Ben Carson or Rand Paul or Mike Huckabee or Paul Ryan or Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio or the man who actually will be the 2016 Republican nominee, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Hell, most Americans can't name their own congressman, two senators, or even who the vice president is. Some can't even answer the question of from which country America won its independence, and in what century it did so. Or, tweak a Lazarus Long aphorism, "Never underestimate the ignorance of the American voter".
But most Americans are familiar with the name Bush, it being the surname of two of the past three POTUS's before the current despot. It's gotten so dynastically bad that future GOP presidential aspirants would be well-advised to have their last names legally changed to Bush just to take advantage of it. My God, Seattle Mariners relief pitcher Charlie Furbush could probably run and collect at least a few hundred delegates. To call the American presidency the Bush "family business" would be a garish understatement.
And that is precisely why Jeb Bush is not and will never be the 2016 Republican nominee, or even a "front-runner". Because name-recognition is only what gets you in the door. This is why there is a nominating process and primary elections and caucuses state by state and endless, interminable, stage-clogging debates. That, and there is about as much appetite for a third Bush presidency amongst the GOP base as there is ambition on Bill Clinton's part to join a monastery. Which is precisely why the Obamedia is getting as early a leg up as possible in generating the sort of "inevitability" meme that will foist him on us anyway to pave the way for another rancorous Republican Party split, millions of conservative voters staying home (again) and creating the opening for Elizabeth Warren to run for electoral daylight.
Which I have to admit, just as a warning to all my Tea Party friends, is entirely possible if TPers don't smarten up, stop declaring any semi-public conservative who gives a speech with which they agree "presidential timbre," stop fragmenting amongst multiple candidates and, well, creating the opening for the designated RINO to run for nomination daylight, learn how politics works and the kind of resume that actually wins national elections, and otherwise do what it actually takes to win.
In short, Republicans' infamous nickname "Stupid Party" isn't limited to the party "establishment". And any incarnation of the GOP that would sign off on, or even allow, a Bush trilogy would be stupid indeed.
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