Monday, June 04, 2018

California Election Eve's Many Storylines

By Douglas V. Gibbs
Author, Speaker, Instructor, Radio Host

● Governor: If you believe the polls, and the alleged conventional wisdom, Gavin Newsom is facing an easy win in a State where his hard left positions on the issues exemplify the dark blue opinions of the hardcore left leaning voters of the State of California.  Moderate Republican John Cox is polling well enough to seem like he should be the GOP choice that might fill the second spot on the top two final prize to be determined after tomorrow's open primary election.  If Cox grabs that slot, Newsom's supporters believe it would be an easy rainbow cake walk for the former San Francisco Mayor into the Governor's mansion.  However, if the next highest polling candidate, Antonio Villaraigosa, the former Mayor of Los Angeles and fellow Democrat, pulls into seat number two, the ease of Newsom's campaign efforts from June 5 to the General Election on November 6 go bye-bye and the cost rises dramatically.  So, Villaraigosa is actually pushing for people to vote for Travis Allen, hoping the conservative Republican will get enough votes to split the GOP vote and knock Cox down enough for the Southern California Democrat to sneak into the second spot.  But, what if I am right, and the polls are wrong?  What if the data I've been seeing with online and social media interest for Travis Allen is where the true numbers are?  Is it possible that the truth is something stranger than what the mainstream believes?  Is it possible that Travis Allen has a serious opportunity to grab the number two slot and show America that even Californians are sick and tired of the failed policies of the Democrat Party, as well as the false belief that only a moderate Republican can win in California?

● U.S. Senator: Dianne Feinstein, it turns out, as far left as she is, is too conservative for the Democrat Party.  Kevin De Leon, a much more liberal Democrat than Feinstein, is vying for the elder Democrat's seat.  Unknowns Erin Cruz and Paul Taylor, and the very guy behind the "stop top two" push that died on the floor of the State Republican Party Convention Floor, have divided the GOP vote so much that nobody sees a chance for a Republican to sneak in on this race.  Paul Taylor, however, despite no political experience and little name recognition, is making quite a splash.  Hmmmmmm.  One wonders.

● Maxine Waters' Seat: Early in the campaign season Waters showed no concern.  She's won every time by more than 70% of the vote over a generation.  Why worry?  Never mind that at that point the Republicans collectively were running neck and neck with her.  Then, the elder Congresswoman decided to show how popular she is, and held a campaign event designed to attract hordes of millennials.  Except, only ten showed up.  Oops.  With no other Democrat in the race, the lead Republican will face off with her in November, and with the incredible prowess of GOP candidates Edwin Duterte, Frank DeMartini, and Omar Navarro, Maxine may indeed be experiencing some very troubled waters.

● Two Republicans for Congress?  In the 8th Congressional District, out there beyond the Inland Empire towards the mountains and desert, incumbent Paul Cook is very popular.  The thing is, so is very conservative Tim Donnelly.  It's a heavily Republican District, and the three Democrats in the race will likely dilute away any Democrat Party chance to get into the top two.

● Red Wave Very Possible:  For congressional seats, it is very likely that Democrat incumbents may lose their seats in force . . . 31st District Sean Flynn is looking real good against Pete Aguilar in a district that some used to believe was a safe Republican seat.  Christian Valiente is making a valiant effort against Norma Torres, and with Joe Baca splitting the Democrat vote, Valiente will likely get a chance to prove it in November.  Kimberlin Brown-Pelzer's popularity in the 36th District definitely has Dr. Raul Ruiz nervous as the hard left Democrat tries defend his possession of the seat that once belonged to Republican Mary Bono Mack.  Mark Takano is getting more than he thought he would from upstart Republican candidate Aja Smith in the 41st District.

● Safe Republicans:  In the 42nd District Ken Calvert is very safe.  Julia Peacock has proven to be a candidate willing to act illegally during her campaign, use the voter rolls to attack her opponents on social media, and act shamefully in public.  Quintero poses no threat.  Matt Woody, as an independent, is siphoning more votes from the Democrats, than from the GOP.  While the Democratrs are claiming they have Duncan Hunter on the run in the 50th District, my research has me believing his seat is pretty safe.

● Election Integrity:  Republican Mark Meuser for California Secretary of State has been campaigning on taking on election fraud head on if he is elected . . . and so far his strategy has gave him a real chance to pull off a win.

● Republican Treasurer from a Democrat District:  I think one of the candidates I am most excited about is Cudahay's offering, Jack Guerrero.  This young, conservative candidate is exciting to listen to, has a brilliant mind, and hails from a city with an over 85% Democrat majority . . . yet, he won there to grab a seat on the city council, and now I think he can take California's seat for State Treasurer.

● Constitutional Judge:  I have had a lot of time with Judge Steven Bailey.  He's a true conservative, a true constitutionalist, and a serious threat to Xavier Becerra's reign of terror.  Could you imagine a Republican as California State Attorney?  I can.

● California Assembly: The super majority in Sacramento is not only over, but I think the Republicans may gain some seats.  District 52's Toni Holle is a long-time activist in the district, and is well known - I believe she's going to give liberal Freddie Rodriguez a run for his money.  Sabrina Cervantes is already a liberal in a conservative district, and her team's illegal activities and the fact she voted for the gas tax is definitely going against her.

See you on the flip-side of voting day, and we'll see what's next . . .

-- Political Pistachio Conservative News and Commentary

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