The GOP bleeding stops, for the moment, and even reverses in Arkansas, while Alaska gets a little redder and Michigan comes within a deuce....
(Incumbents in bold; all polling via Rasmussen Reports)
SAFE REPUBLICAN
ALABAMA: Jeff Sessions (R) - unopposed
IDAHO: James Risch (R) 54%, Nels Mitchell (D) 29%
MAINE: Susan Collins (R) 59%, Shenna Bellows (D) 31%
MISSISSIPPI: Thad Cochran (R) 48%, Travis Childers (D) 31%
MONTANA: Steve Daines (R) 55%, Amanda Curtis (D) 35% (GOP pickup)
NEBRASKA: Ben Sasse (R) 51%, David Domina (D) 34%
OKLAHOMA: James Inhofe (R) 58%, Matt Silverstein (D) 27%
SOUTH CAROLINA: Lindsey Graham (R) 49%, Brad Hutto (D) 30%
SOUTH DAKOTA: Mike Rounds (R) 44%, Rick Weiland (D) 29%, Larry Pressler (RINO) 18% (GOP pickup)
TEXAS: John Cornyn (R) 47%, David Alameel (D) 29%
TENNESSEE: Lamar Alexander (R) 47%, Gordon Ball (D) 32%
WEST VIRGINIA: Shelly Moore Capito (R) 50%, Natalie Tennant (D) 33% (GOP pickup)
WYOMING: Mike Enzi (R) 63%, Charlie Hardy (D) 27%
SOLID REPUBLICAN
ALASKA: Dan Sullivan (R) 48%, Mark Begich (D) 43% (GOP pickup)
ARKANSAS: Tom Cotton (R) 47%, Mark Pryor (D) 40% (GOP pickup)
GEORGIA: David Perdue (R) 46%, Michelle Nunn (D) 40%
KENTUCKY: Mitch McConnell (R) 46%, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 41%
LEANING REPUBLICAN
LOUISIANA: Bill Cassidy (R) 44%, Mary Landrieu (D) 41% (GOP pickup)
TOSS-UP
IOWA: Bruce Braley (D) 43%, Joni Ernst (R) 43%
LEANING DEMOCRAT
COLORADO: Mark Udall (D) 44%, Cory Gardner (R) 42%
MICHIGAN: Gary Peters (D) 41%, Terri Lynn Land (R) 39%
SOLID DEMOCRAT
KANSAS: Greg Orman ("Independent") 45%, Pat Roberts (R) 40% (Dem pickup)
MINNESOTA: Al Franken (D) 50%, Mike McFadden (R) 42%
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 48%, Scott Brown (R) 42%
NORTH CAROLINA: Kay Hagen (D) 45%, Tom Tillis (R) 39%
SAFE DEMOCRAT
DELAWARE: Chris Coons (D) 49%, Kevin Wade (R) 34%
HAWAII: Brian Schatz (D) 60%, Cam Cavasso (R) 28%
ILLINOIS: Ali Dickbar al-Durbini (D) 48%, Jim Oberweis (R) 38%
MASSACHUSETTS: Ed Markey (D) 49%, Brian Herr (R) 31%
NEW JERSEY: Corey Booker (D) 48%, Jeff Bell (R) 35%
NEW MEXICO: Tom Udall (D) 54%, Allen Weh (R) 33%
OREGON: Jeff Merkley (D) 48%, Monica Wehby (R) 35%
RHODE ISLAND: Jack Reed (D) - no polling, prohibitive favorite
VIRGINIA: Mark Warner (D) 53%, Ed Gillespie (R) 36%
HIGH: GOP picks up Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alaska, Louisiana, Iowa, Arkansas, and Colorado, but loses Kansas, for a net gain of seven seats and a 52-48 majority in the next U.S. Senate.
MEDIAN: GOP picks up Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alaska, Louisiana, and maybe Iowa, but loses Kansas, for a gain of five or six seats and either a 51-49 majority or a 50-50 split in the next U.S. Senate.
LOW: GOP picks up Alaska, Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, but the Democrats pick up Kansas, for a net GOP gain of two seats, leaving the Democrats to retain a 51-49 majority in the next U.S. Senate.
After falling behind in North Carolina and Kansas the past two weeks, welcome news arrives out of Arkansas as Representative Tom Cotton surges to a seven point lead over incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor. Which may help explain why his name is in the post-Holder Attorney-General sweepstakes.
Additional encouragement comes in what might be described as the raising of the Republican floor, with Dan Sullivan expanding his lead over Alaska Donk Senator Mark Begich to five points, and Republican Terry Lynn Land pulling into a virtual dead heat with Democrat Gary Peters in Michigan. "Make no mistake," I'd cream myself if the GOP could run the proverbial table, but it is perhaps even more important to lock in that six-seat minimum gain to the greatest extent possible.
37 days to go.....
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