LAST WEEK STRAIGHT UP: 11-4
LAST WEEK vs. SPREAD: 7-8
SEASON STRAIGHT UP: 68-37-1
SEASON vs. SPREAD: 49-57
It's over. The "experts" were right. The "Madden Curse" is real. The towel is thrown in.
As I've long said in the political realm, I'm not a pessimist, I'm a realist. And the reality is this:
In Week 2, the Champs effectively surrendered the Lombardi trophy in San Diego.
In Week 6, the Champs effectively surrendered the George Halas trophy to Dallas.
And last week, the Champs effectively divested themselves of the NFC West title.
I would be at least mildly surprised if the Seattle Seahawks win another game all season.
I didn't sweat the first loss at Qualcomm for a number of reasons: it was 120,000 degrees, and the Chargers are looking like Super Bowl contenders. Looking back, their playoff run last season looks a lot like ours in 2012, setting the stage for even bigger things this season.
I did sweat the loss to the Cowboys, for reasons on which I elaborated at length a week ago. That lowered my expectations dramatically downward. But I still considered making the playoffs a likelihood, if not a certainty.
Not after last week's infuriating 28-26 loss to the woebegone St. Louis Rams.
I'm not going to talk about injuries - our starting and backup tight ends (Zach Miller, Luke Willson), middle linebacker and leading tackler (Bobby Wagner), and starting and nickel cornerbacks (Byron Maxwell, Jeremy Lane), among others. I'm not going to talk about the trade for three magic beans of wide receiver (and apparent locker room cancer) Percy Harvin. Maybe I would have six or two weeks ago, but the problems of this team cannot be papered over by such excuses. Every team has injuries, and sometimes good player acquisitions turn out badly. But the fact of the matter is, the 'hawks have become the antithesis of what they were last year: A team that always finds a way to lose.
What happened to the Legion of Boom defense of a year ago? They're nowhere to be found. We're almost halfway through the season and the LOB has - what? Two interceptions? Versus last year's twenty-eight. We can't get opposing offenses off the field on third-downs anymore. The one thing on which this defense was hanging its hat - stopping the run - got blown away against Dallas (162 yards), and we even gave up 102 yards to the putrid Rams.
The offense, by contrast, can't convert on third downs. It's a three-and-out machine. Remember the "Beast Mode" running game? Stuffed. Marshawn Lynch gained a big, fat 62 yards against Dallas, and 53 against St. Louis. It doesn't matter how physical a runner Lynch is, he can't blast open holes in the defensive front by himself. Kind of makes it ironic that the lone weakness from last year - mediocre offensive line play - is the only team trait carried forward into 2014. How bad has the running game gotten? Quarterback Russell Wilson now has two hundred-plus yard rushing days in the past three weeks. Which is great for what it is, but a team can't rely on its quarterback for its running game, not if they expect that QB to stay out of a body cast.
The passing game isn't much different. And no, Doug Baldwin, it isn't because our receiving corps is "pedestrian". You want your answer? Harken back to the mediocre offensive line. Russell Wilson is a quarterback who makes plays with his legs as much as his arm, and thank God for that, because if he was a potted plant in the pocket, he'd be in wheelchair already. Every time he drops back to pass, he's running for his life. Even with his mobility, the same godawful Rams pass rush that had all of one sack all season took Wilson down three times.
Which reminds me, remember the pass rush that made Peyton Manning's life miserable in Super Bowl XLVIII? They got three sacks in the opener against Aaron Rodgers and have collected two, maybe three since. Austin Davis - Austin bleeping Davis - wasn't so much as hurried. One more clipboard holder that we made look like Joe Montana.
And yet, and yet....look at the team stat line:
FIRST DOWNS: Seattle 25, St. Louis 18
RUSHING YARDS: Seattle 171, St. Louis 102
PASSING YARDS: Seattle 292, St. Louis 170
TOTAL YARDS: Seattle 463, St. Louis 272
TIME OF POSSESSION: Seattle 32:24, St. Louis 27:36
Just as the 30-23 final score didn't indicate how badly the Dallas Cowboys pounded the Champs, this 28-26 score doesn't indicate how thoroughly the latter outplayed the Rams overall. The reason it doesn't was because of the sudden collapse of what had been the singular remaining strength of the team up until last week: special teams.
This game was lost on three plays: the 73-yard kickoff return, which set up the Rams first touchdown; the 90-yard punt return for a touchdown; and the fake punt on fourth and six late in the fourth quarter when we could have gotten the ball back and made a last ditch field goal drive to win the game. If the special teams do their damn job, the Champs win this game 27-14, I'm writing a "Percy Who?" post, and it'd be off with moderate hopes to Carolina today.
Instead we're at .500 for the first time in over two years, and dropping like an anchor.
You know what this is? The Seattle Seahawks are turning (back) into the Seattle Mariners: a team that does just enough to lose, and just enough to miss the playoffs when they look like they're winning.
I wonder how many other 'hawks are contemplating following (or regretting not having preceded) Percy Harvin out the V-MAC door.
[Straight up picks indicated by asterisk (*); picks against the spread in parentheses (x).]
Baltimore* (+1)
Cincinnati
Buffalo
N.Y. Jets* (-3)
Chicago
New England* (-6.5)
Detroit* (-4)
Atlanta
Houston* (-1.5)
Tennessee
Indianapolis* (-3)
Pittsburgh
Miami* (-4.5)
Jacksonville
Green Bay* (+1.5)
New Orleans
Minnesota* (+2.5)
Tampa
Oakland
Cleveland* (-7)
Philadelphia* (2.5)
Arizona
St. Louis
Kansas City* (-6.5)
Seattle* (-4.5)
Carolina
(This is why I have a formula that I follow to make picks, rather than making them emotionally. Which is also why I'm going to miss this pick.)
~~~~~~~~~~~
Washington
Dallas* (-9.5)
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