Years shrank to months, months shrank to weeks, weeks shrank to days, and now days have shrunk to hours. Tomorrow, believe it or not, is Election Day. Which is mildly surprising, because I wasn't entirely convinced that Barack Obama would permit THIS election to take place; I'm entirely convinced that he won't allow the 2016 election, but that's a post for another day a couple of years from now, presuming that I still have access to the Internet and this blog still exists.
I'm making no specific picks on House races because they aren't necessary. Republicans are going to retain the House, maybe pick up a few more seats, and as such I didn't want to go to the trouble of reconstructing the House election spreadsheet I compiled in 2010 that somehow got lost or deleted. Besides, if the GOP does lose the House tomorrow, the Senate and gubernatorial races won't matter, either.
Yes, gentlebeings, as a bonus I'm throwing in my picks for State governor races as well - particularly one in the upper Midwest.
So here we go....
(Incumbents in bold; methodology averages all polls in final week of campaign, allocates 1/3 of undecided votes to incumbent and 2/3 to challenger, or splits undecideds 50/50 in open seat races, and includes a 1% voter fraud factor in favor of the Democrat candidates; elections stolen by voter fraud indicated in red.)
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U.S. SENATE RACES
GOP Holds
ALABAMA - Jeff Sessions (R), unopposed
IDAHO - James Risch (R) 63.0%, Nels Mitchell (D) 37.0%
KENTUCKY: Mitch McConnell (R) 51.2%, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 48.8%
MAINE: Susan Collins (R) 60.5%, Shenna Bellows (D) 39.5%
MISSISSIPPI: Thad Cochran (R) 56.3%, Travis Childers (D) 43.7%
NEBRASKA: Ben Sasse (R) 61.7%, David Domina (D) 38.3%
OKLAHOMA: James Inhofe (R) 65.2%, Matt Silverstein (D) 34.8%
SOUTH CAROLINA: Lindsey Graham (R) 50.5%, Brad Hutto (D) 37.6%, Thomas Ravenel (R) 11.9%
TENNESSEE: Lamar Alexander (R) 58.0%, Gordon Ball (D) 42.0%
TEXAS: John Cornyn (R) 59.3%, David Alameel (D) 40.7%
WYOMING: Mike Enzi (R) 68.0%, Charlie Hardy (D) 32.0%
GOP Pickups
ALASKA: Dan Sullivan (R) 50.7%, Mark Begich (D) 49.3%
ARKANSAS: Tom Cotton (R) 55.3%, Mark Pryor (D) 44.7%
COLORADO: Cory Gardner (R) 51.8%, Mark Udall (D) 48.2%
MONTANA: Steve Daines (R) 58.6%, Amanda Curtis (D) 41.4%
NORTH CAROLINA: Thom Tillis (R) 50.3%, Kay Hagen (D) 49.7%,
SOUTH DAKOTA: Mike Rounds (R) 45.3%, Rick Weiland (D) 36.3%, Larry Pressler (RINO) 18.4%
WEST VIRGINIA: Shelly Moore Capito (R) 61.2%, Natalie Tennant (D) 38.8%
Run-Offs
GEORGIA: David Perdue (R) 49.2%, Michelle Nunn (D) 47.8%, Amanda Swafford (L) 2.9%
LOUISIANA: Mary Landrieu (D) 45.6%, Bill Cassidy (R) 40.5%, Rob Maness (R) 14.0%
Democrat Pickups
KANSAS: Greg Orman ("Independent") 54.2%, Pat Roberts (R) 45.8%
Democrat Holds
DELAWARE: Chris Coons (D) 58.3%, Kevin Wade (R) 41.7%
HAWAII: Brian Schatz (D) 68.2%, Cam Cavasso (R) 31.8%
ILLINOIS: Ali Dickbar al-Durbini (D) 54.3%, Jim Oberweis (R) 45.7%
IOWA: Bruce Braley (D) 50.1%, Joni Ernst (R) 49.9%
MASSACHUSETTS: Ed Markey (D) 58.0%, Brian Herr (R) 42%
MICHIGAN: Gary Peters (D) 59.0%, Terri Lynn Land (R) 41.0%
MINNESOTA: Al Franken (D) 54.2%, Mike McFadden (R) 45.8%
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 50.7%, Scott Brown (R) 49.3%
NEW JERSEY: Corey Booker (D) 57.0%, Jeff Bell (R) 43.0%
NEW MEXICO: Tom Udall (D) 55.2%, Allen Weh (R) 44.8%
OREGON: Jeff Merkley (D) 57.1%, Monica Wehby (R) 42.9%
RHODE ISLAND: Jack Reed (D) 71.0%, Mark Zaccaria (R) 29.0%
VIRGINIA: Mark Warner (D) 53.9%, Ed Gillespie (R) 46.1%
Preliminary scoreboard for 114th United States Senate (pending recount election results)
REPUBLICAN 50
DEMOCRAT 48
David Perdue and Bill Cassidy will be small favorites in the Georgia and Louisiana runoffs, respectively, so the chances are moderately good that the GOP will begin January 9th with a 52-48 majority in the upper chamber. Though let us not forget Mary Landrieu's uncanny ability to come back from lackluster performances on Election Day to sweep away her GOP challengers in the subsequent runoffs, and that Georgia's runoff is on January 6th, for some sadistic reason, meaning that if Senator Landrieu succeeds in pulling another corrupt rabbit out of her proverbial hat, control of the Senate will rest upon the outcome of that Perdue-Nunn showdown. And if that canvass ends up in a photo-finish and months of recounts and re-recounts and re-re-recounts? And don't forget that the longer the counting goes on, the more likely the Democrat will "win". A factor that will already have cost Republicans Iowa and New Hampshire.
I can't help also pointing out that the Chris Coons seat would already be "red" if Delaware Tea Partiers hadn't screwed Mike Castle and shoved the abominable Christine O'Donnell down Republican throats back in 2010, eliminating the afore-depicted cliffhanger scenario. Or that "recounts" could save Kay Hagen in North Carolina as well. But I had to settle on some voter fraud factor, and it turned out in my numbers not to pull her bacon out of the fire. Call it a ray of unintentional optimism.
And now, those aforepromised gubernatorial forecasts....
ALABAMA: Robert Bentley (R) 66.0%, Parker Griffith (D) 34.0%
ALASKA: Bill Walker (D) 54.3%, Sean Parnell (R) 45.7% (Dem pickup)
ARIZONA: Doug Ducey (R) 52.8%, Fred DuVal (D) 47.2% (GOP hold)
ARKANSAS: Asa Hutchinson (R) 54.1%, Mike Ross (D) 45.9% (GOP pickup)
CALIFORNIA: Jerry Brown (D) 59.1%, Neel Kashkari (R) 40.9%
COLORADO: Bob Beauprez (R) 50.4%, John Hickenlooper (D) 49.6% (GOP pickup)
CONNECTICUT: Daniel Malloy (D) 47.0%, Tom Foley (R) 46.2%, Joe Visconti (TP) 6.8%
FLORIDA: Charlie Crist (D) 48.8%, Rick Scott (R) 43.6%, Adrian Wyllie (L) 7.6% (Dem pickup)
GEORGIA: Nathan Deal (R) 48.6%, Jason Carter (D) 47.6%, Andrew Hunt (L) 3.8% (Runoff)
HAWAII: David Ige (D) 54.4%, Duke Aiona (R) 35.0%, Mufi Hannemann (I) 10.6% (Dem hold)
IDAHO: Butch Otter (R) 52.7%, A.J. Balukoff (D) 47.3%
ILLINOIS: Pat Quinn (D) 50.3%, Bruce Rauner (R) 49.7%
IOWA: Terry Branstad (R) 57.0%, Jack Hatch (D) 43.0%
KANSAS: Paul Davis (D) 54.5%, Sam Brownback (R) 45.6% (Dem pickup)
MAINE: Mike Michaud (D) 45.8%, Paul LePage (R) 42.8%, Eliot Cutler (D) 11.4% (Dem pickup)
MARYLAND: Anthony Brown (D) 52.9%, Larry Hogan (R) 47.1% (Dem hold)
MASSACHUSETTS: Charlie Baker (R) 51.1%, Martha Coakley (D) 48.9% (GOP pickup)
MINNESOTA: Mark Dayton (D) 52.4%, Jeff Johnson (R) 47.6%
NEBRASKA: Pete Ricketts (R) 60.1%, Chuck Hassebrook (D) 39.9% (GOP hold)
NEVADA: Brian Sandoval (R) 58.3%, Robert Goodman (D) 41.7%
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Maggie Hassan (D) 51.7%, Walt Havenstein (R) 48.3%
NEW MEXICO: Susana Martinez (R) 54.0%, Gary King (D) 46.0%
NEW YORK: Andrew Cuomo (D) 60.7%, Rob Astorino (R) 39.3%
OHIO: John Kasich (R) 57.8%, Ed FitzGerald (D) 42.2%
OREGON: John Kitzhaber (D) 52.8%, Dennis Richardson (R) 47.2%
RHODE ISLAND: Gina Raimondo (D) 44.7%, Allan Fung (R) 41.5%, Robert Healey (H) 13.8% (Dem hold)
PENNSLYLVANIA: Tom Wolf (D) 57.9%, Tom Corbett (R) 42.1% (Dem pickup)
SOUTH CAROLINA: Nikki Haley (R) 55.3%, Vincent Sheheen (D) 44.7%
SOUTH DAKOTA: Dennis Daugaard (R) 62.2%, Susan Wismer (D) 37.8%
TENNESSEE: Bill Haslam (R) 61.0%, Charlie Brown (D) 39% ("Just wait 'till next year!")
TEXAS: Greg Abbott (R) 59.7%, Wendy Davis (D) 40.3% (GOP hold)
VERMONT: Peter Shumlin (D) 54.0%, Scott Milne (R) 46.0%
WISCONSIN: Mary Burke (D) 51.1%, Scott Walker (R) 48.9% (Dem pickup)
WYOMING: Matt Mead (R) 60.0%, Pete Gosar (D) 40.0%
To tally it all up, the Republicans will pick up three governor's mansions (Arkansas, Colorado, and Massachusetts) while the Democrats will gain six (Alaska, Florida, Kansas, Maine, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). In terms of overall numbers, the GOP will still hold a slight majority - twenty-six out of fifty - of State governorships, but in terms of impact, the Democrats will have cleaned up.
Of the trio of GOP gains, only Colorado is at all consequential, and that in the sense of trying to turn that State "red" again (which Cory Gardner's Senate win will reinforce). But the Donks will get back Florida ("Sorry Charlie's" revenge) and Pennsylvania (the 2010 "red tide" going back out again), two heavyweight swing states. And then the ultimate vengeful triumph: Finally toppling Tea Party superstar Scott Walker, the greatest threat the Republicans had to finally wrest back the White House in 2016 and start rolling back the preceding decade of Obamunism. With Governor Walker gone, the GOP is relegated to slim presidential pickings - Tea Party pretenders like Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio, or RINOs like Mick Huckabee, Jeb Bush, and Chris Christie. It might well give serious impetus to a third Mitt Romney run. Meanwhile, Senator Elizabeth Warren will be waiting as Barack Obama's heir apparent, and if the Dems decide they need political executive cred, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and retiring Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe (aka Bill Clinton with his fly zipped) will be on hot-standby.
The One might not have to cancel the 2016 election after all. Though I still think he will.
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