And, just like that, here we are at Championship Sunday. Seems like it was just Wild Card weekend, and we blinked, and Super Bowl XLIX is just two weeks away. I guess the reason it seems to go by so quickly is because in baseball and basketball, the games are daily, and with more games, that makes the MLB and NBA playoffs seem to take longer. And, of course, they do take longer, especially the NBA playoffs, which take two months or more, as opposed to baseball's and the NFL's single month. Whereas in football, with games on a weekly basis, there's all the anticipation and buildup and hype, and then the single three-hour game, and BAM, it's gone. And just think: We still haven't gotten to the Big Game in Glendale, Arizona.
But today are what are supposed to be, what are billed as, the epic showdowns to determine the winners of the George Halas and Lamar Hunt trophies. The thing about it is, though, I just can't see either game as living up to that hype.
How does the NFL generate an encore worthy of last year's epic NFC Championship Game for the ages between bitter archrivals San Francisco and Seattle? The answer, of course, is that they can't. It's impossible. The Seahawks' 23-17 win over the 49ers at CenturyLink Field, with all its twists and turns, ups and downs, and backs and forths, culminated by "The Tip"....
....will never be equaled. It was, in my humble opinion, better even than the 1981 NFC title contest between the Joe Montana-led 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys symbolized by "The Catch"....
....that sent San Francisco to the first of their eventual five Lombardi trophies over the next thirteen seasons. How can Green Bay-Seattle hold a candle to any of that?
Sure, the two teams have met in the playoffs before, though all on the "frozen tundra of Lambeau Field," and neither all that competitive Packers victories (33-27 in overtime in a 2003 NFC Wild Card game, remembered in the Pacific Northwest as the game in which then-QB Matt Hasselbeck blurted into the stadium mic after the OT coin toss, "We're gonna take the ball and go down and SCORE!!!", after which he threw the game-losing pick-six; and a 42-14 blowout in a 2007 NFC divisional playoff in a trademark Wisconsin blizzard). More recently there was the infamous "Inaccurate Reception/Fail Mary" game in 2012 at CenturyLink, where a clear end zone interception on a Russell Wilson pass to wide receiver Golden Tate was ruled a touchdown catch by the scab refs. The officials lockout ended the next day.
But none of the above doth a rivalry make. And the opening day 36-16 beating administered to the Packers (more lopsided even than that, since All-Pro free safety Earl Thomas's muffed punt gifted the Pack one of their two TDs) doesn't bolster the perception that today's game is going to be any more competitive than that one was.
But you play the hand you're dealt, as legendary Rams and Seahawks coach Chuck Knox used to say. And as we pixelate, the kickoff is rainbowing through the misty air right now. So what can be said about this matchup?
Answer: Not a whole lot. At least, not a whole lot that's eye-catching or surprising. For all the usual quarterback-centric hype about unquestioned future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the truth is that when I look at the Packers, I see the NFC equivalent of last year's Denver Broncos: An average team with a mediocre defense (#15) led by, well, a future Hall of Fame quarterback. The Broncos were an eight or nine win team before Peyton Manning came along. Once he was on board, they skyrocketed to the twelve to thirteen win level and became an overnight Super Bowl contender. But beneath the glory of the Manning Mystique, they were still an average football team playing in a weak conference, and that's what got devastatingly exposed in Super Bowl XLVIII.
The Packers are no different. Look at their 2013 season. With Aaron Rodgers for the entire season, Green Bay would have won eleven or twelve games and probably knocked Carolina out of the second NFC seed and secured a first round bye. They still would have lost to San Francisco in the playoffs, as they did the last two seasons, just in the divisional round instead of the Wild Card. But they lost him to a broken collarbone for six games going down the stretch, and the Pack immediately collapsed. The only reason they made the playoffs was because Rogers came back for the last two games, and Detroit engaged in the mother of all choke jobs.
Or just harken back three weeks to the effective NFC North title game with those same Lions. Rodgers had the Pack out to a 14-0 first quarter lead; when he left the game with that left calf injury, Detroit quickly tied the game before halftime. When Rodgers returned, Willis Reed-like, to start the second half, Green Bay pulled away for the 30-20 win that ultimately put them in this bookend-like rematch with the defending Super Bowl champs.
It does not, in short, bode well, either for the flickering hopes of Cheeseheads or for general fans looking for a good, competitive game. As I have put it before in recent weeks, the Packers are a playoff team, and the Seahawks are a Super Bowl contender. The difference between those two levels is canyonesque.
And I don't mind admitting that that was why I was rooting for the Pack last Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys. I remember what the latter did to the Champs here in Week 6: almost two hundred yards rushing (159 from DeMarco Murray), Tony Romo making every big play, Dallas finishing the game in the fourth quarter - usually Seattle's trademark - despite the 'hawks taking the ball away twice in the third quarter. Their offensive line dominated our defensive line - hell, their offense dominated the best defense since the 1985 Chicago Bears when it was still at full strength in a 30-23 win at CenturyLink - Seattle's only home loss of the season - before injuries took out All-Pro middle linebacker Bobby Wagner and seriously hampered All-Pro strong safety "Bam Bam" Kam Chancellor (or, as he nicknamed himself this past Saturday, "the Dark Knight"; and as All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman nicknamed him, "The
Which brings us to the Champs' divisional round romp over the Carolina Panthers. Now for anybody who watched the whole game, you'll be objecting that it was a close game into the fourth quarter, and you'd be right. The Panthers always play the Seahawks tough because their philosophy on offense and defense is so much like ours: Young, mobile, versatile quarterback; power running game; physical, hard-hitting defense. The reason Seattle has won all four meetings the past three seasons is because while both teams have the same philosophy, Carolina doesn't have all the personnel needed to flesh it out. Last Saturday illustrated that vividly.
The Panthers did what every team tries to do defensively: stuff Marshawn Lynch and contain Russell Wilson and force him to beat them from the pocket. They "loaded the box" (put seven and eight defenders near the line of scrimmage) even on obvious passing downs, and they won that battle: Beast Mode was held to 59 yards on 14 carries, and Seattle managed only 100 yards on the ground overall, barely more than half their league-leading per-game season average. On the other side of the ball, Carolina enjoyed good success running the ball themselves with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, piling up 132 yards, a little below twice what the Seahawks gave up per game all year, good for third in the NFL. Because of that, the Panthers enjoyed a ten-minute edge in time of possession, and therefore possessions and scoring opportunities. If they had taken care of the ball, they would have been looking at a 24-17 mother of all upsets.
But there's the rub, and it illustrates in just how many ways the Champs can beat a team. Sherm picked off a long Cam Newton pass in the second quarter, followed not long after that by a Michael Bennett forced fumble deep in Carolina territory that set up Seattle's first touchdown, a beautiful Wilson tear drop throw to wideout Doug Baldwin. And then, early in the fourth quarter, with Newton driving the Panthers toward a score that would have made it a one-score game, came "Kamquake I":
In the space of thirty seconds, 24-17 became 31-10. Game over. Ditto Russell Wilson's gaudy 15 of 22, 268 yard, 3 touchdown, 149.2 QBR performance (and an absolutely sick 8 for 8, 199 yards, and all three of those scores on third downs) - most of it from, yes, right there in the pocket, exploiting the Panthers' abysmal secondary.
And that doesn't include not one, but two of the most insanely athletic plays from the All-Pro strong safety that I've ever seen, back-to-back:
Bozhe moi. Imagine if Kam had blocked the second kick; he probably would have held onto it and taken that one to the house as well.
You want X's and O's? The Packers don't run much, which they really should try in order to take the pressure off of "Discount DAAAAAAABLE-CHECK'S" left calf as well as to maybe take the heat of the Seahawks' pass rush (diminished already by the loss of tackles Brandon Mebane to a hamstring tear and his replacement, Jordan Hill to....a calf injury) down a notch or two. But Eddy Lacy was smothered the last time (12 carries, 34 yards), and there's no reason to think that this time will be much different. Mr. Rodgers probably won't entirely avoid Richard Sherman's side of the field again, but then Cam Newton made a big, chest-thumping point of challenging Sherm, and we saw how that turned out. It really is a case of coach Mike McCarthy picking his poison. And on the other side of the ball, Marshawn Lynch against the NFL's #23 run defense? Ouch. And if the Pack stacks the box to stop him? More Russell Wilson teardrops. And I don't mean crying.
You can coach fundamentals, you can coach schemes, you can coach styles of play, but you can't coach talent and wicked speed and power. Pete Carroll isn't the first coach to get the idea of building a team with no weaknesses, but he and general manager John Schneider (ironically enough, from the Green Bay "GM tree") have actually done it. (Well, okay, the offensive line still needs work, but still....) Carroll is about as opposite of Vince Lombardi personality-wise as it's possible to get and still be in the same species, but Russell Wilson is a too-good-to-be-true-in-every-sense hybrid of Bart Starr and Fran Tarkenton, and there simply isn't any parallel for the Legion of Boom (entire defense).
If the Packers hadn't lost at Buffalo (#3 defense on the road, hint, hint) late in the season, this game would have been at Lambeau, and that would have given them some chance - not much, but some. But at the Clink, against this wrecking machine, with Aaron Rodgers playing on one and a half legs? They may make it closer than they did back on September 4th, but they've got no shot at getting to the Toaster.
Green Bay (+7.5)
Seattle*
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You know how last Sunday I lazily saved myself some keystrokes by referring our readers to my Colts comments from the previous Saturday? I can't do that today. Why? Remember my fretting about "teams of destiny" last week and how it looked like the Ravens and Cowboys were shaping up to bring back that tiresome phenomenon this time 'round? Remember also how both blessedly went down to the Patriots and Packers, respectively, putting a happy end to the threat for another year?
I spoke too soon.
Now, to be fair, the Broncos lost that 24-13 decision at Mile High as much as the Colts won it. It has now emerged that Peyton Manning was playing with a quad tear the last month of the season, which explains why his stats, and Denver's on-field performance, went so precipitously south. Remember what I said above about the Broncos being an average team with a Hall of Fame quarterback? Their defense this year was much improved over 2013 (#3 vs #17), and they didn't do a bad job of containing the Colts offense (i.e. Andrew Luck). But we all know that last year's Broncos would have hung 42 on Indy and sent them home to Hoosierville in a box. They outscored teams back then, they didn't shut them down. This year, while the "New Orange Crush" could keep the Broncos in games when occasionally required, they couldn't win them games that didn't get out of the teens.
And on Saturday, a Peyton Manning who looked every bit of his almost thirty-nine years barely got his offense into the teens. Which is why he's contemplating hanging it up and Coach John Fox either quit or was fired last Monday, depending on the source.
But it should be pointed out that the trademark "youthful exuberance" of the 25-year-old, third-year Colts signal-caller that used to lead to box scores showing three and four hundred yard tallies, four TDs, and as many picks appear to be at thing of the past. His line last Sunday in Denver: 27 of 43, 265 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 picks. The first number that leaps out at you is the 9.8 yards per completion. That means Luck wasn't bombing it downfield indiscriminately. He didn't try to force much. He took what the defense gave him. He patiently checked through his reads and played the percentages. He did a much better job of taking care of the ball and managing the game, and as a result didn't have to engage in late-game heroics necessitated by his own foolish mistakes. Even the two interceptions were on long third downs in his own territory that were de facto punts.
You might say that Luck is becoming more Russell Wilson-esque. And that made it easier on his defense, which is good but not great (#11), and had figured to have its hands full already, but was spared that extra pressure by the Fivehead's infirmity.
I'm not sure if this was an effective torch-passing, but it sure looked that way from my recliner.
So is Indy the team of destiny this year? Remember, last year they beat the Seahawks in a shootout, although it was at the Drum.
Problem is, they didn't beat the Pats last year in the playoffs (a 43-22 blowout at the Big Razor) or this year at home (an almost identical 42-20 stomping). Since the Colts pass defense (#12) is better than their run defense (#18), and New England doesn't run the ball all that much or well (#18 - although in the two aforementioned games, they've run up 480 yards on the ground), I can only attribute that to the superlativeness of yet another future Hall of Fame quarterback (Tom Brady), his uncoverable (until the Legion smoothers him) tight end Rob Gronkowski, and the craftiness of future Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick. And, yes, the Colts heretofore total inability to stop the Pats' running game.
If there's one exception to my "look at the numbers" rule, it's Belichick and the Patriots. The reason is simple: in this modern era of free agency, it's not only difficult to keep a championship nucleus together, it's difficult to maintain the same style for more than a few years at a time. Belichick and Brady have been doing it for a decade and a half. 12 AFC East titles in 14 years, five AFC titles, three Lombardi trophies. Tonight is their fourth straight AFC Championship game appearance. And all of that has come in spite of the inflow and outflow of personnel, the ebbs and flows offensively and defensively. The true mark of a great coach is that he can win with whatever talent he has, adapting his style to its strengths and minimizing its weaknesses. Belichick is a master at it, as well as the mind games that can get in the heads of up-and-coming young teams, with the track record to prove it. And it, you know, doesn't hurt to have had a future Hall of Fame quarterback taking the snaps for the whole ride.
In other words, the Patriots are the worst opponent for Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts today, because coach Chuck Pagano can't outcoach Belichick, Tom Brady isn't gimpy and still has a couple of decent years left, and Luck will be so discombobulated before it's over that that butt-ugly beard will be growing out of his back.
And, yes, the Pats will have rushed for 240 more yards.
Indianapolis
New England* (-7)
But buck up, Colts fans: In Andrew Luck's rookie year, you got to the first round of the playoffs; in his second year you won a playoff game and got to the divisional round; this year you reached the AFC Championship Game. Next year you should reach Super Bowl L, where the Seahawks will sack Luck a dozen times, and pick him off half a dozen times more, en route to the NFL's first Super Bowl threepeat.
And please, do remind me a year from now that I said it, in case I forget to say "I told you so".
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