Yesterday left more than a bit to be desired. Today, I think, business will begin picking up.
I always make a distinction between playoff teams and Super Bowl contenders. The former are fairly numerous and a dime a dozen: Good enough to feast and load up on also-rans, not good enough to avoid inconsistency, the occasional upset, and eventually getting exposed by the latter. The Bengals and Colts epitomize the breed.
The team from "The Jungle" has, under the decade-long guidance of coach Marvin Lewis, been a nominal winner, usually a wild card, intermittently grabbing AFC North championships depending upon the rise and fall of its divisional rivals, and invariably one-and-done in the playoffs. Seriously, the Bengals haven't won a playoff game in almost a quarter of a century, the longest current drought in the NFL. Which is odd, because Cincy usually has a much-underrated defense (it was #3 last year), and has offensive talent in quarterback Andy Dalton, wideout A.J. Green (69 receptions, 1,041 yards, 6 TDs in thirteen games), and running back Jeremy Hill (1,124 yards, 9 TDs). You'd think they could make at least the occasional deep playoff run.
Then you take a look at Dalton's QBR over his four years under center: 80.4, 87.4, 88.8, 83.5. A hundred is the gold standard QBR threshold for NFL quarterbacks. Which indicates what Andy Dalton is: second-tier. Not bad, by any means, but plainly and simply not good enough to take his team to the next level. It's most of why he has earned his reputation for choking in big games, where he can always be counted on to throw just enough interceptions to ensure that his teammates will be cleaning out their lockers the next Monday. And apparently, unlike another second-tier quarterback in the doubleheader game tonight, the addition of a thousand-plus yard running back taking some of the offensive load off his arm hasn't made Dalton any better.
Which means, I'm sorry to say, Bengals fans, that your team will never go any farther until you upgrade your quarterback position.
This creates a strange contrast with Cincy's opponent today, because while they have their quarterback of the next decade-plus in Andrew Luck, the case can be made that the Indianapolis Colts aren't even as good as are the Bengals.
A pattern has definitely been established in the now-three Luck years in Hoosierville: The Colts are a mediocre team in a crappy division that inflates their record and raises expectations that are invariably smushed whenever they play a division-leading counterpart from outside the AFC South. Look at their five losses this season: 31-24 to the AFC Champion Broncos, 30-27 to the 2013 NFC East Champion Eagles, 51-34 to the AFC North Champion Steelers, 42-20 to the AFC East Champion Patriots, and a 42-7 bludgeoning at the hands of the NFC East Champion Cowboys. Put the Colts in the AFC North or West and they'd be a .500 team at best; put them in the NFC West and the only thing for which they'd be competing is a high draft position.
There is, however, one division titleholder of recent vintage that Indy not only beat this year, but dominated: the Bengals, 27-0 at The Drum in Week 7.
Then you take a look at the statistical matchups, in which the Colts are better in every area except rushing offense, and their #1 passing offense will be feasting on Cincy's #20 pass defense, and you're left scratching your head at why the Colts can't seem to gain enough traction outside the AFC South to (here's that phrase again) get to the next level.
So whom am I picking? The Bengals, of course.
Cincinnati* (+3.5)
Indianapolis
Why? Because I'd rather see another second-tier team take a turn getting massacred at the Big Razor, that's why.
All of the above is why the Lions-Cowboys marquis matchup of Wild Card Weekend is such an interesting contrast, because these two teams have been, in the previous few seasons, the NFC version of what the Bengals and Colts are now: talented underachievers who can't win the Big One. So what did Detroit and Dallas do to try and upgrade themselves to Super Bowl contenders? One did so with offense, the other with defense.
In the Lions' case, assemble the #2 total defense, and top rushing defense, in football. Particularly in light of injuries slowing wide receiver Calvin "Megatron" Johnson and running back Reggie Bush, that defense was the difference between this year's 11-5 playoff season and last year's 8-8 face-plant that saw Detroit gift the NFC North to the Packers on a silver platter.
Will it be enough to snap the NFL's second-longest playoff victory drought? Some "experts" think it's at least plausible:
Monday's overturn of Ndamukong Suh's suspension ensures that the Detroit Lions will be armed with the three best defenders on the field for Sunday's Wild Card round matchup at the Dallas Cowboys.
Along with reigning first-team All-Pro Suh, the Lions boast one of the NFL's premier linebackers in DeAndre Levy as well as a rising star in pass rusher Ziggy Ansah.
In addition to that trio, the safety duo of Glover Quin and James Ihedigbo has been the league's best for portions of the season.
If Detroit is bringing that much firepower on one side of the ball, a natural follow-up question is whether they have a more talented roster than the NFC East champions.
With Cowboys defensive tackle Henry Melton out for the season and run-stuffing rookie linebacker Anthony Hitchens nursing an ankle sprain, the Lions have a major edge in the front seven as well as the secondary. Detroit's run defense ranks as the NFL's fifth best over the past twenty five years, per Football Outsiders' metrics. Teryl Austin's defense also ranks ninth in opposing passer rating.
Although Dallas counters with one of the most dominant offensive lines of recent memory, NFL rushing leader DeMarco Murray isn't the explosive tackle-breaker that he was en route to breaking records in the first three months of the season.
Murray has averaged a pedestrian 3.9 yards per carry over the last five weeks after topping 4.0 in every game from Weeks 1-11.
The key matchups in my estimation are DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys' #2 rushing attack against the Lions' top-ranking rush defense, and whether Lions quarterback Matt Stafford can pull enough consistency together to exploit Dallas's poor (#26) pass defense. If Detroit can get off to a quick lead and force Tony Romo to have to throw on every down, that Lions front four can turn him back into his old turnover-prone self. If not, their playoff futility will continue.
Given the respective teams' trends coming into this contest, I have to go with Jerry's boys.
Detroit
Dallas* (-7)
Exit question: Over/under on in which quarter Ndamukong Suh or Dominic Raiola tap-dances on Tony Romo's shins?
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