Color me astonished.
When the NFL released its Deflate-gate report last Wednesday, which cleared New England Patriots owner Bob Craft and head coach Bill Belichick of any involvement but drew damaging conclusions about quarterback Tom Brady - including that he was "generally aware" of the ongoing ball deflation in violation of NFL rules, and that he stonewalled the investigation by refusing to turn over texts and emails to the Pats' equipment personnel - I weighed, and ultimately decided against, commenting on it. My reasoning was multi-fold: (1) The ball-tampering in question took place in an AFC Championship game in which the Patriots destroyed the Indianapolis Colts by thirty-eight points, so there's no way that that could have been the deciding factor; (2) It's a reasonable assumption that Brady had been fiddling with his balls for years, much less the entire 2014 season, but there's simply no way to quantify how much of a difference that made overall, and thus no way to tell whether the Patriots would or would not have gotten to the AFC title game without it; (3) It's well known that Bob Kraft is butt-buddies with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, so league politics would protect the Pats from any consequences for this latest round of egregious cheating; and (4) as a Seahawks fan, I would automatically draw "sour grapes" heat, even though I didn't think Deflate-gate was that big a deal at the time, and its discovery before Super Bowl XLIX guaranteed that it could not be a factor for a game that was decided by one chowder-headed play call in any case.
That is not to say that this punishment doesn't put a smile on my face, even if it does come a hundred days too late:
Tom Brady, the star quarterback of the New England Patriots, was suspended for four games after an investigator concluded he was probably aware that team personnel let air out of footballs for a playoff game.
“Quarterback Tom Brady will be suspended without pay for the first four games of the 2015 regular season for conduct detrimental to the integrity of the NFL.” the league said in a statement Monday afternoon. “Brady may participate in all off-season, training camp and pre-season activities, including pre-season games.”
The Patriots don't have to give back the Lombardi Trophy, but this suspension pretty much guarantees they won't repeat. In fact, by my projections, this is the difference between winning another AFC East title and getting to the AFC Championship game again (in which I had them losing a re-match to the Colts) and missing the playoffs altogether, based upon two extra losses (to Pittsburgh at home in Week 1 and at Buffalo in Week 2). By the time Brady can play again, his team will likely be 1-3 (that lone win at home against the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars) and it'll be wild card or bust.
Additionally, New England loses its first round draft choice next year, plus a fourth rounder in 2017, and is fined a million bucks. Of these, that first-rounder could be a potentially big blow, since Brady will be thirty-eight this year and no matter how much he talks about being able to play well into his forties (take a look at how Peyton Manning wilted down the stretch last year, and he's only two years older than Brady), Belichick has got to be planning for the post-Brady era, and that means acquiring a quarterback of the future. Contra examples like Super Bowl XLIX's starters (Brady, sixth round, Russell Wilson, third round), they're the exceptions to the rule that top QB prospects are selected in the first round. And next year the Pats would have had a higher first round pick because of the Brady suspension. Unless anybody buys the whimsical notion that a dynasty can be carried on by future Hall of Famers Jimmy Garoppolo and Garrett Gilbert.
Biggest winner from today's league verdict? The Miami Dolphins, who I now project to win the AFC East and reach the AFC title game in the Patriots' stead. I don't know if they'll pop their "last undefeated team has lost" bubbly early, but if I were they, I'd put it on ice.
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